One reason Kentucky could go far in the SEC and NCAA tournaments? The Cats excel at this.
Think about the offensive prowess of this Kentucky basketball team, and any number of things might come to mind first.
Antonio Reeves’ three-level scoring. Reed Sheppard’s ability from 3-point range. Rob Dillingham’s shiftiness with the ball in his hands. Zvonimir Ivisic’s unique skill set.
Now that March has arrived, it’s time to start thinking about free throws.
It’s not the most exciting aspect of this UK offense, but going into the SEC Tournament opener Friday night — and with the NCAA Tournament just a week away — the Wildcats are likely to be in plenty of close games from here on out. And their expertise at the foul line could be crucial.
As Kentucky fans know all too well, free throws have helped end many of UK’s recent postseason runs.
John Calipari has suffered 10 NCAA Tournament losses during his tenure as the Wildcats’ head coach. In seven of those losses, Kentucky has shot 65% or worse from the line. In four of those defeats — the Elite Eight loss to Auburn five years ago, the title game loss to UConn in 2014, the Final Four loss to the Huskies in 2011 and the season-ender to West Virginia the year before that — the Cats have hit 57% or worse on free throws.
And they’ve all been close games. Calipari has never lost an NCAA Tournament game by more than seven points as UK’s coach. Of the seven in which the Cats shot so poorly from the line, two have gone to overtime and all have been within four points in the final minute of regulation.
Expect the Wildcats to be in more close games starting this weekend. Don’t expect them to blow any at the foul line.
Kentucky enters postseason play at 77.4% on free throws through 31 games. That’s a mighty impressive number on its own. Only two teams in program history have ended the season with better marks.
Calipari’s 2019-20 squad — the one that didn’t get to play in the SEC or NCAA tournaments due to the COVID-19 pandemic — shot a UK record 79.7% from the line. The 1978-79 Wildcats shot 77.6% from the stripe. That’s it. (And, until this season, Calipari’s second-best free-throw shooting team was the 2018-19 group that shot 73.9%, just the 18th-best mark in program history.)
Not only can these Cats cash in their freebies, they’ve been doing an even better job of it in recent weeks.
Kentucky has made at least 75% of its foul shots in each of its last 10 games. The Cats have shot better than 80% in eight of those 10 games. And, not coincidentally, they have an 8-2 record — while playing their best basketball of the season — during that span.
Over that 10-game stretch, UK is shooting 84.4% from the line. Indiana State (85.0%) is the only team in the country that has hit at a better rate over its past 10 games.
And this isn’t a case of just one or two Cats carrying the load. Eight of Kentucky’s key rotation players are shooting better than 83% from the line over the past 10 games: Sheppard and Tre Mitchell (both at 100%), Ivisic (92.9%), Adou Thiero (92.3%), D.J. Wagner (90.0%), Reeves (87.5%), Dillingham (84.4%) and Justin Edwards (83.3%).
The only other UK players that have played significant minutes during that time period are 7-footers Aaron Bradshaw (63.2% on free throws over the past 10 games) and Ugonna Onyenso (57.1%).
Reed Sheppard in crunch time
In close games, every point obviously matters. At the end of those close games, the importance of those points is amplified, and the team in front often finds itself taking more trips to the line as the squad playing catch-up fouls to stay in it.
Calipari knows this as well as anyone. One of the biggest heartbreaks of his career came in such a situation, when his Memphis team went 1-for-5 from the line in the final 1:15 of regulation against Kansas in the 2008 national championship game, the misses allowing the Jayhawks to come back at the end and force overtime. Kansas won the NCAA title in the extra period.
In such late-game situations, this Kentucky has basically been unflappable.
Five of UK’s last 10 games have been decided by single digits, and the score was close down the stretch in all of them. In those five games, the Cats made 31 of 37 free throws (83.4%) in the final five minutes of the second half. (And one of the six misses was intentional.)
A player who tends to find himself on the line most often in those situations is Sheppard, who is second on the team (behind Reeves) with an 84.1% hit rate on free throws this season, third-best in program history (behind only Tyler Herro and Jodie Meeks) for a freshman with at least 60 attempts.
In those late-game, high-pressure situations, Sheppard has been pretty much automatic.
He’s a perfect 10-for-10 at the line in the final five minutes of close ones during this last 10-game span. That includes making five free throws down the stretch at Mississippi State (the game Sheppard won on a buzzer-beater), hitting three in crunch time in the close loss to Gonzaga, and sinking two big ones in Saturday’s win at No. 4 Tennessee.
Sheppard hasn’t missed a free throw since the 103-92 loss to the Volunteers on Feb. 3, more than a month ago. And he’s been clutch from the line late in close games the entire season.
If you throw out an intentional miss in the Jan. 31 loss to Florida — the Cats trailed by three with 2.0 seconds left and needed an offensive rebound — Sheppard is 22-of-25 from the line in the final five minutes of games that are still up in the air. That’s 88%.
His only three misses? The one in that Tennessee loss (with the Cats down seven and 4:41 still left on the clock), a miss in overtime at Texas A&M on Jan. 13, and a meaningless misfire with UK up nine points and just eight seconds left in a win at Arkansas two weeks later.
His hits — in addition to the 5-for-5 performance late in Starkville — included hitting all six free throws in the final 19 seconds of an 87-85 win at Florida and nailing two with 0.6 seconds left to send the game at Texas A&M to overtime.
Before those two shots in College Station, the Kentucky kid smiled as he stepped to the line with his team down two points and the game in his hands.
That type of confidence can be a difference-maker this time of year, and this UK basketball team seems to have plenty of it heading into the postseason.
Next game
Kentucky vs. Texas A&M
What: SEC Tournament quarterfinals
When: 7 p.m. Friday
Where: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn.
TV: SEC Network
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Records: No. 2 seed Kentucky 23-8, No. 7 seed Texas A&M 19-13
Series: Kentucky leads 13-5
Last meeting: Texas A&M won 97-92 in overtime on Jan. 13, 2024, at College Station, Texas
SEC Tournament
At Nashville, Tenn.
All times EDT
WEDNESDAY
▪ No. 12 seed Arkansas 90, No. 13 Vanderbilt 85, OT
▪ No. 11 Georgia 64, No. 14 Missouri 59
THURSDAY
▪ No. 9 Mississippi State 70, No. 8 LSU 60
▪ No. 5 South Carolina 80, No 12 Arkansas 66
▪ No. 7 Texas A&M 80, No. 10 Mississippi 71
▪ No. 6 Florida 85, No. 11 Georgia 80
FRIDAY
1 p.m.: No. 1 Tennessee (24-7) vs. No. 9 Mississippi State (20-12), (ESPN)
About 3:30 p.m.: No. 4 Auburn (24-7) vs. No. 5 South Carolina (26-6), (ESPN)
7 p.m.: No. 2 Kentucky (23-8) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (19-13), (SEC Network)
About 9:30 p.m.: No. 3 Alabama (21-10) vs. No 6 Florida (22-10), (SEC Network)
SATURDAY
1 p.m.: Semifinal 1 (ESPN)
About 3:30 p.m.: Semifinal 2 (ESPN)
SUNDAY
1 p.m.: Championship game (ESPN)
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