How the outcome of 'battleground Calgary' played into the UCP's win

Throughout the election, both the United Conservative Party and the Alberta New Democrats put a target on Alberta's largest city: it was widely held that Calgary's 26 seats would play a crucial role in determining the ultimate victor.

Given the NDP lead in Edmonton, and the UCP's hold on areas outside the province's two largest cities, observers predicted the election could come down to how the results in Calgary played out.

In the end, the NDP did make some significant gains in Calgary beyond the re-election of its three incumbents, Kathleen Ganley, Irfan Sabir and Joe Ceci.

As of 1:45 a.m., the NDP was projected to win 14 of Calgary's 26 ridings — some by razor-thin margins as small as seven votes.

The six closest ridings in the city were decided by a combined 851 votes.

Margins of victory in Calgary ridings

But province-wide, it quickly became clear that wouldn't be good enough: the UCP's strong performance outside of the major urban centres would deliver the day.

"Places like Red Deer-South. This was supposed to be the election where [the NDP] made some of those gains, maybe into the smaller cities," pollster Janet Brown told CBC News' Rob Brown.

"Maybe not into the true rural areas, but some of the smaller cities. They didn't quite get there this time."

Still, the results also revealed significant changes within Calgary, with the NDP appearing to lock up vote shares previously claimed by the Alberta Party and other smaller parties, and eating slightly into the UCP's vote share.

As of 1:45 a.m, the NDP had earned the most votes across all Calgary ridings, with 49.3 per cent of the total ballots cast in the city, compared to 48.2 per cent for the UCP.

Vote share across all Calgary ridings in Alberta elections from 2008 to 2023

"The urban-rural divide is significant," said Mount Royal University political science professor Lori Williams. "There are a lot of divisions amongst Albertans, within the UCP, between urban and rural. This is going to be a real challenge, going forward, for leaders."

Riding results

Prior to polls being closed, UCP strategist Erika Barootes said the party was confident in its hold on suburban south Calgary.

"But you're kind of looking at some of those Calgary-Glenmore, Calgary-Bow, Calgary-Acadia — [those] are some of the ones that have gone back and forth in a lot of the polls," she said. "But, we're looking for 'W's there tonight."

Calgary-Glenmore was projected for the NDP by a margin of 30 votes. The UCP was projected to win Calgary-Bow by 385 votes.

Calgary-Acadia — the riding where Alberta Minister of Justice Tyler Shandro had hoped to be re-elected — went to the NDP in 2015, and Shandro took the riding in 2019.

As of 1:45 a.m., NDP challenger Diana Batten, a registered nurse and nursing instructor, was projected to win by a mere seven votes.

Here are other notable ridings in Calgary that had been closely tracked by election-watchers:

• Calgary-Glenmore was decided by a margin of only six votes in 2015 in favour of the NDP, before the UCP took it back with a healthier margin in 2019. NDP candidate Nagwan Al-Guneid was projected to win by 30 votes over UCP incumbent Whitney Issik.

• Calgary-Cross was viewed as being another potential linchpin for a potential shift from the UCP to the NDP. As of 1:45 a.m., that riding was projected to be won by incumbent Mickey Amery, who held a lead of just over 500 votes over NDP challenger Gurinder Singh Gill.

In what was the first defeat of a cabinet minister of the night, in the riding of Calgary-Currie, the NDP's Janet Eremenko beat the UCP's Nicholas Milliken, who was the province's mental health and addictions minister.

At her campaign rally, Eremenko said she felt the win represented the culmination of years of work.

"This was my third time running — second time for the province, once for the city council," she said. "I'm honoured to be here. I want to first tip my hat to my fellow candidates. It is no easy feat ot choose to put your name on the ballot."

Both party leaders kicked off their campaigns in the city — UCP Leader Danielle Smith from a front lawn in the southeast Calgary neighbourhood of Auburn Bay, NDP Leader Rachel Notley at Platform Calgary, a non-profit firm that helps tech start-ups.

From there, the two party leaders made some big promises to the residents of Calgary: Smith, promising $300 million towards Calgary's arena project, Notley, a promise to commit up to $200 million for a downtown Calgary campus.

In a statement released late Monday, the Calgary Chamber of Commerce congratulated Smith on her victory, providing a list of policy commitments they hoped she would support.

"As the champion for Calgary businesses, the Calgary Chamber stands ready to work with the government as they strive to support Alberta's economic growth and implement policies that strengthen Calgary's business community," wrote Deborah Yedlin, chamber president, in a statement.

"Working collaboratively, we can build a prosperous future for our city and province, ensuring Alberta remains a magnet for capital, opportunity and talent."