Will Penn State make the College Football Playoff? Our predictions for the 2023 season
Penn State’s 2023 season is nearly underway with the Nittany Lions set to take on West Virginia Saturday at 7:30 p.m. in Beaver Stadium. We’ve already chosen our MVPs on both sides of the ball and last week chose our breakout player. Now, it’s time to predict just how good this iteration of the program will be.
Here are our record projections for the Nittany Lions.
Jon Sauber: 11-1
I waffled between 11-1 and 12-0 but finally settled here. This is the best defense of the James Franklin era and should be one of the top units in the country this season. The offense is still behind but the schedule will allow for it to get rolling as presumed starter Drew Allar gets his feet wet over the first few weeks. The reason I couldn’t decide between one loss and zero is because of the one game I’d have them losing. I expect this team to beat the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus in late October. That leaves the Michigan game as the only other likely loss — but that game is in Beaver Stadium.
Ultimately, it just feels more likely that the team will lose than go undefeated, even if that loss comes at home. That being said, I still wouldn’t be surprised if this team goes 12-0. Right now I’ll settle on 11-1 with an appearance in the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history.
Josh Moyer: 11-1
No one’s ever accused me of being an optimist, but I legitimately waffled between 11-1 and 12-0. After all, there’s a lot to like with this year’s team. The defense is a top-5 unit — maybe top 10, at worst — with stars at every level, and the offense is a mixture of wild cards, sky-high potential and established stars. (This is the best offensive line since the sanctions, Penn State boasts arguably the nation’s best 1-2 punch at running back, QB Drew Allar is already discussed as a potential top-3 2025 NFL draft pick, and wide receiver still has me puzzled.)
Penn State could very well be the Big Ten’s most talented team in 2023. So why didn’t I go 12-0? Well, I’ve watched every game that James Franklin has coached since arriving here in 2014 — and end-of-game decisions like 2018 Ohio State still give me pause about predicting an undefeated regular season. Like most years, this season will hinge on how PSU fares against Michigan and Ohio State. And I just can’t project a 2-0 record against that pair, considering the Nittany Lions haven’t beaten them in the same season since 2008, back when Franklin was Maryland’s offensive coordinator. Regardless, I’m expecting Penn State to remain in the College Football Playoff conversation this season. The Nittany Lions are great; we’ll just see Oct. 21 (and Nov. 11) if they’re elite yet.
Matt DiSanto: 11-1
For the first time in a long time, I feel pretty optimistic about Penn State’s chances heading into a football season. The Nittany Lions have plenty of returning stars on defense, and fresh faces like Kent State wide receiver transfer Dante Cephas could help inject some juice into an offense that averaged nearly 36 points per game last season, third-best in the Big Ten. My expectations grow even more once you factor in all-but-certain starting quarterback Drew Allar, who might be the most highly anticipated Penn State prospect in my lifetime.
I have full faith that this is going to be an excellent Penn State team. The real question, though, is whether the Nittany Lions can stand up against Michigan and Ohio State, which figure to be the Big Ten’s top squads. Penn State hasn’t beaten both the Buckeyes and Wolverines in the same season since 2008, and I’m not ready to think it’ll happen this fall. I’ll chalk up one of those games as a loss, but I don’t see any other defeats on this schedule. If Penn State can live up to its expectations and muscle up an 11-1 regular-season record, we could very well see the Nittany Lions qualify for the College Football Playoff before the bracket expands to 12 teams in 2024.
