Penn State vs. Michigan predictions: Can the Nittany Lions pull off the upset?

Penn State will have one last chance to prove it’s elite Saturday afternoon against Michigan. The Nittany Lions will take on the Wolverines in Beaver Stadium with their College Football Playoff hopes on the line. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with Michigan.

Offense doesn’t have to be perfect

Drew Allar played about as well as he could have against Maryland last week. This week, he really only needs to be around 60% of that player. The Nittany Lions are in for another difficult matchup on that side of the ball, which means Allar and company are unlikely to get anywhere near the 51 points they put up against the Terps. That doesn’t mean the group doesn’t need to make plays, though. It just doesn’t have to be drive after drive success like it was then.

Realistically, if this offense can put together three touchdown drives, it’s going to be in the game no matter what. Put together four and I think the likelihood of an upset eclipses the 50% threshold. That might not seem like much, but Michigan has allowed two teams to reach double digits all season. Yes. Double digits. No team has scored more than a single touchdown on the Wolverines all year, but they also haven’t exactly faced good offenses either. The highest ranked offense the team has faced according to ESPN’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, is UNLV at No. 53. Penn State will have its chances, it just has to take advantage of them.

Allen needs to feature

Penn State has rotated its running backs this season — and for good reason. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are elite talents and proved it last year. But it’s time for the Nittany Lions to lean on Allen in this one. He’s been the better of the two backs so far this season, producing more consistently than his teammate. But it’s not just about the production. There are two other key aspects where Allen is standing out right now. He’s better as a pass catcher and as a pass blocker than Singleton and I don’t think it’s particularly close. His reliability from that standpoint could be a difference maker in this game. He may not break off a big gain as a receiver, but giving Allar extra time and a reliable dump off option should be the priority on Saturday.

The other aspect is his running style. Michigan is a physical defense that is going to try to bully its opponents every snap. Singleton could use his speed to break a big play, but Allen is powerful enough to wear down even one of the strongest defenses in the country. The Nittany Lion offensive line should be able to help in that regard and that opens the door for Penn State to find more success on the ground late in the game when the group is tired. Even if that doesn’t happen, Allen’s reliability and ability to hit the hole consistently is enough to make him the feature back in this one.

Turnovers are needed

For the Nittany Lions to have a chance, they need to earn some takeaways against a Michigan offense that has proven to be elite this season. The Wolverines have received plenty of attention for their defensive success, but that has overshadowed a unit that has been early as good in its offense. J.J. McCarthy has been successful all season, connecting on 75.7% of his passes and spreading the ball around to weapons like Roman Wilson, Cornelius Johnson and Colston Loveland. He has thrown only three interceptions all season, all of which came against Bowling Green early in the season.

That doesn’t mean he’s not susceptible, though, especially against a defense as good as Penn State’s. The Nittany Lions will need to swarm any ball that can be theirs, whether it’s on a pass or a potential strip-sack. That is the type of play the unit has come up with more often than not this season and it’s what it’ll have to do to give its offense an advantage at some point in the game. Not forcing a turnover doesn’t make a win impossible, but it will demand more out of both the offense and the defense in order to get the job done.

Final predictions

Michigan 13, Penn State 10: I haven’t picked against Penn State all season, but it’s hard to have complete confidence that the offense will play like it needs to right now. The Ohio State result is still lingering as the benchmark the unit needs to clear, despite its best game of the year against Maryland last week. If the offense shows up and plays like it’s capable, then Penn State can pull off the upset. Otherwise, I expect this to be a low-scoring slugfest.

MVP: Blake Corum. If this thing is low scoring it’s probably going to come down to the Wolverines hitting on a big play or sustaining at least one long drive to score. The smart money is on Corum being the player that leads them down the field and proving he’s the best back in the country in the process. I’ll say he scores a touchdown after carrying the ball 27 times for 145 yards in the game.

The last word

Penn State head coach James Franklin on why Michigan’s running game is successful:

“I think we have been much more disciplined and consistent in gap responsibility. There has been times where we have tried to make plays and get out of our gap, and against good teams the ball will find the open gap. I think we’re a little bit bigger. I think the size has helped us as well. We’re a little bit bigger across the front, specifically the D-line. Not to the point where it’s affected our ability to move. I think that’s a big part of what we do as well, is our movements and our games. And then with them, offensively I think they do a really good job getting a hat on a hat. So really good job of IDing the front, being able to get their six blockers on our six most dangerous defenders, and I think Corum has the ability to have tremendous vision and balance and behind the line, because they are able to get a hat on a hat. He’s patient. Once he foes decide to go, he has the ability to burst through the hole. Even though he’s undersized guy he’s a powerful guy and he is always falling forward. And then obviously they got a change of pace back as well who’s made some huge plays in the passing game and is explosive in Donovan (Edwards). So they got two really good backs. They got an experienced offensive line. They have done a good job being aggressive each year in the transfer portal on the offensive line. They have been able to bring in experienced guys. I think the two guys they brought in, one was captain at Stanford and one was captain at Arizona State, so they got veteran guys in that room whether it’s their own guys our guys they have gone out and gotten.”