Penn State vs. Michigan State: How will Drew Allar’s status impact the game?

Penn State will close out the regular season Friday night against Michigan State. The Nittany Lions will take on the Spartans in Detroit at Ford Field with the team having a chance to make a New Year’s Six bowl with a win. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with Michigan State.

Allar works into a rhythm

There may still be questions about just how much sophomore quarterback Drew Allar plays Friday, but if it’s the usual workload then the focus for Penn State has to be getting him going and allowing him to find a rhythm. His overall numbers look good, but the eye test doesn’t point to a quarterback who is being maximized by the staff or one who feels comfortable at all times. That started to change against Rutgers when Allar took more chances down the field and hit a few open pass catchers on crossing routes in the middle of the field, but it has to continue the rest of the season.

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again, but getting Allar right for the 2024 season is the most important thing for the program right now. There are other things that come with that — finding better receivers, ensuring the defense stays at a high level next year — but the program will go as far as Allar can take it. Next year, that means setting the 12-team College Football Playoff as the goal and having him play well enough to reach it.

Putting on a defensive show

I feel like these stories have mostly centered around the offense — and rightfully so given its struggles — but fans should enjoy the defense while they have it. There will likely be plenty of turnover once the season ends, and that could come on the roster and the coaching staff. Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz is surely going to be a head coaching candidate given his unit’s success and quite a few of his best players will likely be in the NFL next year — with Chop Robinson and Kalen King already projected as first round picks — leaving this as one of the last couple chances to see this elite defense.

There aren’t many units in the country that can do the two most important things on defense — rush the passer and play in coverage — as well as the Nittany Lions do. They have three players who are potential starters at the next level in Robinson, Adisa Isaac and Dani Dennis-Sutton, and two cornerbacks who will have the chance to do the same in King and Johnny Dixon. That doesn’t even include players like Curtis Jacobs and Abdul Carter at linebacker and K.J. Winston at safety. This group is so good at all three levels and might go down as one of the best defenses of the James Franklin era.

Opening up the running game

Penn State found a rhythm with its running game Saturday once Beau Pribula entered the game, but now it’s time to carry that over to the reps with Allar on the field. That’s easier said than done because there are obvious reasons that Pribula’s presence changes the running game. He’s a high-level athlete and high-level runner who forces defenses to account for him on the ground. That makes defenders hesitate on hand-offs because if he’s making a read and decides to keep the ball, any run could turn into a big gain. While Allar is a sneaky good runner, he’s not nearly the athlete Pribula is and opponents don’t fear him in the same way.

That being said, he could afford to keep the ball — if he has the option to — on read plays because the field tends to open up for him because there isn’t that same fear. Doing that a few times could result in one of two things. Either teams won’t adjust and he’ll be able to get consistent yardage on the ground, or they will and Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen will get more space to work with when they’re running. Regardless, the team needs to find a way to get those two running backs rolling no matter who is in the game at quarterback.

Final predictions

Penn State 35, Michigan State 13: I have a hard time seeing this game being close. Michigan State is finishing out the year with an interim head coach and will likely look very different in a month, and Penn State can still — and will likely — make a New Year’s Six bowl with a win. Whether it’s a heavy dose of Pribula, an even split or Allar’s normal workload, I think Penn State comes out on top with relative ease.

MVP: Chop Robinson. The Penn State pass rush has been prolific all season, so let’s go with one of those guys to close the regular season out. Robinson has been one of the best pass rushers in the country and could be playing one of the last games of his college career. I’ll go with two sacks — one of them coming with a forced fumble — for the junior against Michigan State.

The last word

Penn State head coach James Franklin on the game plan being smaller after Yurcich’s departure:

“What I will say to answer your question is that’s always the challenge, right? How tight can you get the game plan to allow the players to get enough reps versus all the looks in the game to play fast and assignment sound, but not too small that there is not enough things in the plan to give the defense challenges and issues. So that is always the constant battle. I remember when I first became a coordinator ... coming from a West Coast system the game plan was massive. The longer you do it you realize you want to give the guys just enough, so every year my game plan got smaller and smaller and smaller. Again, that’s where it’s an art and not just a science. Where is the sweet spot?

“We try to say, OK, the numbers, how many plays do we have in the game plan in week one, week two? Let’s go back last year. How many plays did we have in the game plans? What games did we play the best in? What was the sweet spot? Not just the number of plays in the game plan, how many of those plays are new concepts, not the same play run from a different formation with a different motion. That’s fine. How many of those plays are new concepts as well? What’s the sweet spot for that as well? Typically that may show up on third down and red zone or with a trick play or shot. So all those things have to be factored in, and to me, that’s where the best ones are. They’re as tight as they can be with the game plan, but not so tight that it becomes simplistic and easy for the defense. So that’s constantly a challenge each week. Then I would also say the more complex the defense you’re playing, then probably the smaller the game plan needs to be. The more base and standard the defense is, then maybe you can be a little bit more creative. You’re trying to balance all of those things each week. That’s a constant battle and struggle.”