New poll shows most Kentuckians oppose abortion ban without rape, incest exceptions

A majority of surveyed Kentuckians do not support the state’s current abortion ban’s lack of rape and incest exceptions, according to a poll released Friday morning.

The new survey, conducted by Emerson College Polling, asked 1,000 likely voters between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2 who they are most likely to vote for in this year’s race for governor, between Democratic incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear and Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

While those results show a dead heat between the two candidates, with both tying at 47-47 — Beshear and Cameron received exactly 469, while 4% were undecided and just over 2% said they’d vote for someone else — responses about Kentucky’s current abortion ban was far less nuanced.

To the question, “Do you support or oppose Kentucky’s current laws that ban abortion in nearly all cases, with no exceptions for rape or incest?” 54.9% of those surveyed said no, they opposed the current law.

Just under 30% — 28.4% — said they supported it, while a shade under 17% said they were “unsure.”

A spokesperson for Beshear’s campaign said the poll shows that “voters oppose this extreme ban with no exceptions and politicians like Daniel Cameron who support it.”

Cameron’s campaign hasn’t yet responded to a request for comment.

Friday’s survey is the latest amid a dearth of public opinion polls on abortion in Kentucky, a state that eliminated nearly all access after Roe v. Wade was overturned in June 2022.

The state’s trigger law outlaws abortion unless it’s necessary to save the life of a pregnant person, and a six-week ban, or fetal heartbeat law, bans the medical procedure after fetal cardiac activity is detected, usually around the sixth week of pregnancy.

Neither law includes exceptions for rape, incest, or fatal fetal anomalies — a reality that has become a focal point of both Cameron and Beshear campaigns.

The Emerson College results are somewhat in line with broader national opinion.

A Pew Research Center poll from earlier this year found that 62% of 5,079 adults surveyed from March 27 to April 2, 2023, said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared with 36% who said it should be illegal in most cases.

Last November, Kentuckians defeated a Republican-backed constitutional amendment that sought to amend the state constitution to make clear it did not contain inherent abortion access protections. Essentially, the amendment would’ve effectively nixed the court’s ability to interpret the constitution as containing these protections and made it even more difficult to successfully legally challenge any Kentucky law banning abortion.

The rejection of Constitutional Amendment 2 was the first statewide referendum on abortion access. It provided some insight into the potential disconnect between public opinion on abortion access, which is nuanced, compared with the far-reaching restrictions Kentucky’s Republican majority has enacted in recent years.

Cameron has long exercised his power as attorney general to defend Kentucky’s abortion restrictions, arguing such duly-enacted laws are necessary to protect innocent life.

Once the current bans became enforceable last year and the state’s two outpatient abortion providers sued on the grounds that such bans violated an individual’s constitutional right to bodily autonomy and privacy, Cameron vigorously defended the bans in court.

Those laws notably do not include rape and incest exceptions — a decision reaffirmed by the legislature as recently as March, when lawmakers declined to give a bill to that end from House Minority Whip Jason Nemes, R-Louisville, a hearing.

But when Cameron launched his bid for governor this spring, months after voters rejected Amendment 2, abortion was not a prominent topic of discussion on the campaign trail. When it did come up in primary debates, he parroted his long-held support of current laws.

During a March debate ahead of the Republican primary, each candidate was explicitly asked whether they supported adding rape and incest exceptions. Cameron dodged the question, saying, instead, “Well, I support the current law.”

This shifted in September, when Beshear’s campaign released a television ad hammering Cameron on his support for bans that don’t allow survivors of rape and incest to legally access abortions.

Days after that ad began airing, Cameron pivoted, saying if elected and the legislature handed him a bill with those exceptions, he would sign it.

This switch to supporting exceptions was notable for a Republican gubernatorial candidate in a red state who scored 100% on the Kentucky Right to Life’s “ProLife Responses,” which earned him the group’s endorsement.

It’s unclear how polls like this one will influence future legislative attempts to further restrict abortion access or cede ground with current bans.

While nothing has yet to be filed for the 2024 legislative session, at a policy forum hosted by the Family Foundation in October, Rep. Nancy Tate, R-Brandenberg, said the state needs to consider punitive laws against organizations that “aid and abet” Kentuckians who travel across state lines to get abortions.

The Family Foundation, a conservative Christian lobbying group that supports “pro-family” policy, has not changed its position on rape and incest exceptions. At that policy forum, the organization listed defeat of Nemes’ rape, incest and fatal fetal abnormality bill in the 2023 regular session one of the “harmful bills defeated,” calling such exceptions “anti-life.”

Neither the Family Foundation nor Kentucky Right to Life responded to requests for comment from the Herald-Leader Friday about the latest Emerson poll.

Planned Parenthood, one of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit challenging Kentucky’s abortion bans and one of two remaining outpatient abortion providers before those bans took effect, said in a statement: “What has remained constant in polling, even before Roe was overturned, is the strength of support for abortion access across the political spectrum. The state of reproductive health in the commonwealth is dire.”

“This latest poll reaffirms that Kentucky voters oppose the current ban, most importantly because Kentuckians are living with the consequences in real time,” the group said.