Republicans Focus on Rising Crime to Counter Democratic Abortion Momentum
(Bloomberg) -- Republicans are sharpening their attacks against Democrats on the topic of rising crime in an attempt to blunt voter anger over the narrowing of abortion rights that jeopardizes the GOP’s once-strong chances to take the US Senate.
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About 30% of Republican campaign ads mentioned crime at the end of last week, a sharp increase from just two months ago, according to an analysis of data compiled by AdImpact, a firm that tracks political advertising.
“It’s a perfect topic,” said Christine Matthews, a Republican strategist. “I would rather you be focused on your concerns about safety and crime than on extreme abortion bans.”
Polls show that Democrats have a strong advantage over Republicans on abortion, but Republicans have a similarly wide edge on handling crime, she said.
The Supreme Court’s June ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade, the case that legalized abortion nationwide, marked a turning point in the 2022 midterm election cycle. Until then, the GOP was favored to take control of both chambers of Congress as Democrats were dogged by President Joe Biden’s poor approval rating, decades-high inflation and historical headwinds for the president’s party.
Both parties are vying for suburban women, typically swing voters, in the upcoming election that will determine control of Congress.
Crime Wave
Crime rates had been near historic lows until the Covid-19 pandemic hit, with a surge in gun crimes resulting in a 30% spike in the murder rate in 2020. The increases were felt in every region of the country, in urban, suburban and rural areas.
A YouGov/Economist poll last week found that 64% of registered US voters said the crime issue was “very important.” Only jobs, inflation and health care had greater importance attached. And crime was one of the few issues that resonated across race, age, income, party and gender.
Among US women, 91% said crime was “very” or “somewhat” important -- more than the 80% who said the same for abortion.
The most recent blitz of ads come from the Senate Leadership Fund, a political action committee closely aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, as well all the National Republican Congressional Committee, and the campaigns of Adam Laxalt, the Republican US Senate nominee in Nevada and JD Vance, running for US Senate in Ohio.
The Leadership Fund ads are aimed at Democratic US Senate candidates in competitive states like Wisconsin, where Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is challenging Republican Senator Ron Johnson.
“Mandela Barnes would eliminate cash bail, setting accused criminals free into the community before trial,” says one ad. “Even with shootings, robberies, carjackings, violent attacks on our police -- more than 300 murders last year alone.”
Barnes and other Democrats have tried to parry the attacks with their own ads, often featuring direct-to-camera rebuttals.
“Look, we knew the other side would make up lies about me to scare you. Now they’re claiming I want to defund the police,” Barnes says in his own ad. “That’s a lie. I’ll make sure our police have the resources and training they need to keep our community safe and that our communities have the resources to stop crime before it happens.”
Kristin Davison, a Republican strategist who helped run Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin’s campaign, said that the GOP was likely to lean in on crime regardless of the abortion debate since it’s an area where Republicans enjoy an advantage over Democrats.
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