Will Republicans win the House of Representatives?
A short shift in the political atmosphere this summer gave Democrats a chance to close the gap with Republicans as the parties were vying for public favor in the pivotal midterm elections. Yet historical precedent and recent polls point toward the GOP gaining some newfound control in Congress. Will it be enough to put the Republicans over the edge to win the House of Representatives? Here's everything you need to know:
The latest
Though many predicted the midterm results would be a "red wave," it turned out to be more of a trickle as votes were tallied after Election Day. Democrats secured control of the Senate and are now eyeing what Politico calls "a legitimate — if narrow — chance" at holding on to the House. The latest projections from The Associated Press show Republicans with 212 seats compared to Democrats 204. While Republicans flipped some seats along the path to reach the 218 seats needed for control of the House, Democrats were able to do the same.
Following his remarks at the G20 summit on Monday, President Biden seemed doubtful about his party's chances of pulling another upset by keeping the House.
"I think we're going to get very close in the House. I think it's going to be very close, but I don't think we're going to make it," Biden told reporters.
His comment came in response to a question about what Americans could expect for abortion rights in the near future. Biden said he doesn't think "they can expect much of anything other than we're going to maintain our positions."
Biden said, "I don't think there's enough votes to codify [abortion rights] unless something happens unusual in the House."
New York Times analyst Nate Cohn says, "a Republican House majority now seems in sight." Over the weekend, Cohn added, Democrats "fell short of their targets in the late count in critical battleground districts in Arizona and California." He projects the GOP is on track to win 221 seats if current trends continue, though "several of these races remain so close that they could easily go the other way."
How likely is it that Republicans will flip the House?
Republicans maintained a lead in House midterm election polls, but the certainty of their win has waned at various points. In the early stages of the race, Republicans were expected to easily flip the House since the Democrats' current majority is based on only eight seats. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms; since the end of World War II, the president's party has lost 26 House seats on average. However, a shift in the political environment occurred after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, seemingly giving Democrats a slight boost.
Nevertheless, Democrats were on the defensive trying to maintain their 221-212 majority. Republicans can wrestle back control if they win seven seats of the 33 midterm races considered competitive. The newly drawn congressional maps give Republicans a slight advantage, with 12 districts likely to flip their way, according to the latest nonpartisan Cook Political Report estimates.
Non-partisan poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight's election forecast likewise shows Republicans regaining their lead against the Democrats, giving them an 84 percent chance of winning the House — a 14-point jump over the September estimate. Recent polls have shown that the economy is a leading concern for voters going into the midterms, and those prioritizing that issue typically lean toward Republican candidates. FiveThirtyEight also notes a shift in the generic congressional ballot polling average, swinging back towards Republicans after a short-lived lead for the Democrats.
How many House seats had competitive races?
Political analysts predicted the race for the House could come down to a handful of districts. The Cook Political Report showed Republicans with a slight advantage of 212 leaning or likely seats over the Democrats' 188 leaning or likely seats; as of Nov. 7, 35 seats remain in a state of play, with the report deeming them toss-ups. Democrats have to win 27 out of those 33 competitive races to control the House, while Republicans would only have to win six.
Cook's last projections showed that several states they had previously listed as leaning Democrat had moved to the toss-up column:
In a previous update, David Wasserman, U.S House editor of Cook Political Report, tweeted, "Fascinatingly, all six of the races that have moved in Republicans' direction this week are in states Biden carried in 2020, whereas all four races moving towards Democrats are located in states Donald Trump carried in both 2016 and 2020." The last updates to Politico's Election Forecast, by comparison, had 10 district races move in favor of Republicans.
Politico senior editor Steven Shepard attributed four House races that moved over to the Republican side to "Gov. Ron DeSantis' (R-Texas) strength at the top of the ticket and the GOP's continued improvement among Latino voters." District races in Florida, Wisconsin, and Arizona also moved in the direction of Republicans. Democrats have inched closer to a win in Alaska, which moved to "lean Democrat" from the "toss up" list. They also gained districts in Maryland and Massachusetts, as both seats moved from "likely Democrat" to "solid Democrat."
What could happen if Republicans take the House?
In September, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) revealed his party's midterm agenda, calling it their "Commitment to America." The brief document covered some of the things House Republicans would do if they win the majority in the midterm elections. The economy and stronger border control were among the top issues Republicans pledged to attend to. However, they did not provide many details in the report and notably omitted issues that favored their opponents, such as abortion rights and the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.
Another possible outcome of a Republican victory would be the party disbanding the committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack. McCarthy has not responded to a subpoena to testify about conversations he had with the former president that day, and he was an early opponent of the committee and threatened to investigate any telecom company that provided phone records to the investigation if House Republicans won back control, per The Washington Post.
Democrats have focused on issues such as abortion, climate change, and gun control under President Biden, but their goals could be stymied if Republicans reclaim the House. The GOP could block Biden from implementing his proposed agenda for the rest of his current term, per the Los Angeles Times, and some Republicans have speculated about impeaching him if given the opportunity.
Update Nov. 14, 2022: This story has been updated throughout to reflect the latest poll numbers.
You may also like
7 brutally funny cartoons about the 'red wave' that wasn't
