Russia sets ambitious deadline to seize key Ukrainian town by May
The Russian goal of seizing Chasiv Yar in just three and a half weeks is the focus of an April 14 analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia's top military leadership had ordered the capture of the city, which is crucial to Ukraine's defense, by May 9, according to ISW.
This timeline suggests an expectation by Russian commanders of a quicker offensive than previous attempts to seize Bakhmut in May 2023 and Avdiivka in February 2024.
Russian forces, exploiting shortages in Ukrainian ammunition, anticipate seizing the city within weeks. However, the ISW has highlighted that Russian troops have only made it to the easternmost section of the Kanal Microraion in Chasiv Yar so far. Despite these aspirations, a Russian military blogger hinted that achieving even a limited presence in the southeastern Novyi Microraion by the target date would be ambitious.
The Russians will likely intend to capitalize on significant Ukrainian artillery and air defense shortfalls, which are critical to Ukrainian defense, but which did not constrain the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut or Avdiivka to the same degree as their current constraints, however.
The Russian military command will likely continue efforts against Chasiv Yar until the effort culminates, but Russian forces may be able to make speedier advances than in prior efforts given the degree of Ukraine’s current artillery and air defense shortages.
Geolocated imagery released on April 14 indicates that Russian forces have recently made confirmed advances east of Chasiv Yar and northeast of Kanal Microraion (easternmost Chasiv Yar) and along a windbreak southeast of the city.
A Russian military blogger claimed that Russian forces recently marginally advanced to the eastern outskirts of Terny (west of Kreminna), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim. Russian military blogger claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Ivanivske, although ISW has not observed visual evidence of this claim.Fighting continued near the Novyi Microraion in southeastern Chasiv Yar; northeast of Chasiv Yar near Bohdanivka; southeast of Chasiv Yar near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Opytne; and south of Chasiv Yar near Niu York.
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The Russians also made a confirmed advance west of Avdiivka, amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on April 14. Geolocated footage published on April 14 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced east of Novobakhmutivka (northwest of Avdiivka). Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in the direction of Yasnobrodivka (west of Avdiivka), although ISW has not observed visual evidence of this claim. Fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove, and Berdychi; west of Avdiivka near Semenivka, Umanske, and Tonenke; and southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske, Vodyane, and Nevelske.
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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine
