Simulated matchup between Biden and Trump falsely attributed to Reuters | Fact check
The claim: Image shows 2024 presidential election map built from Reuters polling numbers
A Sept. 15 Instagram post (direct link, archive link) from conservative commentator Jack Posobiec shows a screenshot of a post of his on X, formerly Twitter, that includes a map of electoral votes for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. It shows Trump ahead by more than 80 electoral votes.
"Here's the map with the Reuters poll numbers today," reads the X post. "Now you know why Dems are hitting the panic button about Biden."
The Instagram post was liked more than 30,000 in five days, while the X post garnered more than 20,000 likes in that time. Similar posts were shared on Facebook, Instagram and X.
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Our rating: False
Reuters said it did not publish the polling numbers used to create the map shown in the post. The map was made with a separate website's interactive election forecast tool.
Post shows simulated forecast, not polling by Reuters
The logo for a website called "270toWin" is in the lower-right corner of the post. The website shares polls and election projections and has interactive election forecast tools. That includes an interactive map for the 2024 presidential election that allows users to "create your own 2024 election forecast," according to the map's description.
The page instructs users to, "Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter."
The person who made the map in the post set the matchup to be between Biden and Trump, then made it appear as if all of the "toss-up" states went to Trump, along with nearly all of the states the map labels by default as "leans" red or "likely" red. It also shows Michigan, a state the website's "Consensus Electoral Map" labels as "leans" blue, going to Trump.
Fact check: Donald Trump is still running for president in 2024, despite online claim
Reuters published a fact-check on Sept. 19 debunking the claim that its data was used to create the map.
"Reuters did not publish the polling numbers circulating on social media and does not publish polling results broken down to the state or electoral college district level," the outlet said in the fact-check.
Four days earlier, Reuters published the results of a poll it created with Ipsos that surveyed more than 4,000 people nationwide. The poll found Trump tying Biden in a hypothetical November 2024 election with one in five voters still undecided.
USA TODAY reached out to Posobiec but did not immediately receive a response.
The claim has also been debunked by Lead Stories.
Our fact-check sources:
Reuters, Sept. 15, Biden weighed by economic concerns, age in potential 2024 rematch with Trump, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows
Reuters, Sept. 19, Fact Check: Simulated 2024 election poll numbers falsely attributed to Reuters
270toWin, accessed Sept. 21, About Us
270toWin, accessed Sept. 21, 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2024 election forecast map falsely attributed to Reuters | Fact check
