Six states are toss ups, one leans 'likely Republican' ahead of the 2024 election

Elizabeth Beyer, USA TODAY
Updated ·4 min read

Six swing states have been identified as critical for either candidate to win the 2024 Presidential election in November.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were determined to be toss-up states, along with their 77 electoral votes, according to The Cook Political Report. North Carolina, and its 16 electoral votes was deemed “Leans Republican” but could still be in play for Democrats.

Roughly 6% of voters in those states will likely be deciders, according to a report by Axios.

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Both presumptive presidential nominees are hitting that 6% hard with their messaging, according to Axios. The Trump campaign has focused on inflation, crime and immigration in its messaging, and the Biden campaign is emphasizing stability, democracy and abortion in its messaging to that 6%.

How the battleground states voted in 2020

These states were among the battlegrounds disputed by former President Donald Trump after he lost the 2020 presidential election. President Joe Biden won three of these states by less than a percentage point.

Here’s how the 2020 race shook out in those battleground states.

Arizona: Biden won by 0.3%

Trump disputed the election results in the Grand Canyon State after Biden carried Arizona in November 2020 by a 10,457 vote margin with nearly 3.4 million votes cast. Trump has been named an unindicted co-conspirator in a scheme to attempt to install fake electors to flip the results of the election fraudulently. Charges were issued Wednesday against 18 Republicans and former aides to Trump. The defendants are charged with crimes including conspiracy and forgery for falsely claiming they were presidential electors and that Trump won the state in the 2020 election.

Georgia: Biden won by 0.2%

Trump disputed the results of the 2020 election in Georgia after Biden carried the state by an 11,779-vote margin with nearly 5 million votes cast. A grand jury in Georgia indicted Trump along with 18 defendants in an election interference case. That indictment included dozens of charges, such as violations of Georgia’s racketeering law, impersonating a public officer, and making false statements and writings, among others.

A series of election integrity laws have been passed in the state since 2020 that could limit voter access and potentially overburden election officials.

Michigan: Biden won by 2.8%

Michigan’s attorney general charged 16 people, each with eight crimes, related to the 2020 election. Those charges, handed down in July 2023, include conspiracy to commit forgery and publishing a false record “with intent to injure or defraud,” among other counts. People charged include a co-chair of the state’s Republican party, a GOP national committeewoman, a former elector, and others active in local government and political leadership.

Biden carried the state with a margin of 154,188 votes with just over 5.5 million cast.

Nevada: Biden won by 2.4%

A county grand jury in Nevada charged six Trump electors with two felonies each. Those charges are offering a false instrument and uttering a forged instrument. The individuals charged include state and local GOP leaders.

Biden won Nevada with a margin of 33,596 votes with nearly 1.5 million cast.

Pennsylvania: Biden won by 1.2%

Trump attempted to claim victory in Pennsylvania after the election was called for Biden in November 2020. The Pennsylvania attorney general slammed Trump’s claim and called it “devoid of reality” after the former president attempted to sow doubt in the election results during a post-election GOP event.

Biden won his childhood home state of Pennsylvania by 80,555 votes out of nearly 7 million ballots cast.

Wisconsin: Biden won by 0.7%

Ten Republicans in Wisconsin signed a document that falsely claimed they were the “duly elected and qualified electors” after Biden won the state in 2020. Biden had won Wisconsin with a margin of 20,682 votes and just over 3 million ballots cast. The Wisconsin attorney general has not said whether his office plans to file charges against the fake electors.

North Carolina: Trump won by 1.4%

North Carolina was Trump’s narrowest victory in 2020 when he won the state with a margin of 74,481 votes and 5.5 million ballots cast. Democrats are eyeing the state as flippable, but Republicans remain skeptical.

Looking back, looking forward

Out of the roughly 158 million ballots cast for president in 2020, Biden won those six states by approximately 300,000 votes.

Trump needs to bag one of the Midwestern “Blue Wall” states that he lost in 2020 to win a second term, according to Axios successfully.

This article originally appeared on Staunton News Leader: 2024 presidential election could be decided by 6 battleground states

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