Yet another tropical disturbance is being tracked in the Atlantic Ocean by the National Hurricane Center, bringing the tally of active systems to four.
One of the disturbances, No. 4, is set to move into the Gulf of Mexico, which will be affecting South Florida and the Florida Keys — bringing even more rain to an already saturated area.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
Here’s what National Hurricane Center specialists Lisa Bucci and Andrew Hagen wrote in the hurricane center’s 2 p.m. Friday advisory:
Where is Disturbance 4 in the Gulf?
The hurricane center is watching an area of disturbed weather over the southern Bahamas that is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
Slow development could be possible as it moves west and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, forecasters said.
▪ Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0%.
▪ Formation chance through 7 days: 40%.
“The quick pivot from an empty ‘tropical storm formation not anticipated’ NHC map to one crowded with possible hurricane seedlings is having its moment on social media”
My analysis on the suddenly busier Atlantic https://t.co/F1CLELxhu7
— John Morales (@JohnMoralesTV) August 18, 2023
What’s going on with Disturbance 1?
An area of low pressure in the eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is showing signs of organization through showers and thunderstorms.
“Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic,” Bucci and Hagen wrote in the advisory.
But upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase so further development is not expected early in the week.
▪ Formation chance through 48 hours: 60%.
▪ Formation chance through 7 days: 70%.
It "looks" very busy out there, and there are several areas of interest, but only the feature in the eastern Atlantic (red blob) has any real short term potential for development.
Remember, beginning this year the outlook has been increased to cover 7 days of potential… pic.twitter.com/KSWhnUgRdn
— Craig Setzer (@CraigSetzer) August 18, 2023
What about Disturbance 2?
An elongated trough of low pressure roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for further development but a tropical depression could still form over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
▪ Formation chance through 48 hours: 40%.
▪ Formation chance through 7 days: 40%.
Where’s Disturbance 3?
Another area of low pressure could be ripe for forming in a day or so on the tail end of a trough of low pressure several hundred miles to the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.
“Some slow development is possible over the weekend and into early next week as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea,” according to the hurricane center.
▪ Formation chance through 48 hours: 10%.
▪ Formation chance through 7 days: 30%.
Will they affect Florida?
The fourth system over the southeastern Bahamas and set to go into the Gulf of Mexico will first move over South Florida this weekend. As it travels overhead, it will bring higher rain chances. But if it develops next week it will have moved beyond the state and into the western Gulf of Mexico coastline area.
4 areas across the Atlantic being monitored by NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center for development over 7 days.
Area #4 will move across the #FlKeys as a broad tropical wave on Sat/Sun, accompanied by increasing rain chances and freshening breezes.
Visit https://t.co/BQCTvCzxKU! pic.twitter.com/Ea246v7dZS
— NWS Key West (@NWSKeyWest) August 18, 2023
South Florida weather forecast
A disorganized tropical wave will be approaching S. Florida tomorrow, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
This wave is NOT forecast to develop into a tropical system over the next two days although you will probably want to carry your umbrella pic.twitter.com/LeRfNQSvLc
— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) August 18, 2023
Expect a soggy weekend due to the tropical system. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are already in place Friday afternoon and after 9 p.m.
Saturday and Sunday rain and storm chances are at 80%, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.
▪ Saturday’s highest rain and storm chance is after 3 p.m., according to the service. A tenth to a quarter-inch of rain is expected, but could be more during thunderstorm downpours. Wet weather could kick in before the afternoon, though.
A high of 87 is forecast with a heat index of 101, meaning a heat advisory is unlikely and under the 105 “feels-like” threshold.
▪ Sunday’s highest rain and storm chance is after noon, though don’t rule out showers and lightning in the morning. The storms could linger into the evening, beyond 9 p.m., with a 60% chance of rain and winds gusting at 20 mph.
Sunday’s high is near 88.
▪ Monday is Back to School Day in Broward County. When schools open after 7 a.m. and dismiss in the afternoon on Monday, the forecast calls for a 50% chance of storms. Broward will be breezy, with gusts over 20 mph and the high is near 91 degrees.