You think Kentucky’s offense can overcome its mediocre defense in March? You’re wrong.

Following another cover-your-eyes defensive performance in a 103-92 loss to Tennessee on Saturday night, Kentucky entered this week in dangerous territory.

The Wildcats woke up the morning after that second straight defeat in Rupp Arena at No. 102 in the KenPom defensive efficiency ratings, traditionally the sign of a college basketball team destined to go nowhere once the NCAA Tournament begins.

A look at the past 20 editions of March Madness shows that only four teams that finished the season outside the top 50 in that defensive efficiency stat made it to the Final Four. Put it another way, 76 of the 80 Final Four participants in that span were rated in the top 50 nationally in defense, and Kentucky is not terribly close to that range with the regular season quickly coming to an end.

Of the four teams that did overcome defensive shortcomings to make a March run — Miami (99th in defensive efficiency in 2023), VCU (78th in 2011), Marquette (109th in 2003) and Texas (58th, also in 2003) — none advanced to the national title game.

In fact, only one team in the past 20 NCAA tournaments has advanced to the championship game with a defensive efficiency rating worse than 40th nationally. And that was Butler, which was 46th in 2011 and had the distinction of playing an even worse defensive team (that aforementioned VCU squad) in the national semifinals before losing to UConn in the title game.

Of the past 20 national champions, Baylor — No. 22 in defensive efficiency three years ago — has been rated the lowest in that category. Only two other NCAA champs in the past two decades have been outside the top 15 nationally.

Obviously, Final Fours and national titles are lofty ambitions, but those are also the measures of success in Lexington, where John Calipari and the Cats haven’t delivered a new banner to Rupp Arena since 2015. If the defense doesn’t improve, the skid is likely to last a decade.

“We gotta be a little more sound defensively in what we’re doing,” Calipari said after the loss to Tennessee. “And we’re gonna have to be a collective defensive team.”

That’s the understatement of the season, as well as its recurring theme.

Kentucky vs. history

Even the best, most well-rounded teams must have things go their way to make a run in March, when upsets come out of nowhere, cold shooting nights happen and opposing players go on unexpected heaters. Winning four (or six) games in a row is obviously difficult that time of year.

Stringing together victories in the tournament with a porous defense is next to impossible.

But Kentucky’s offense is terrific, some will say. Yes, it is. The Cats started the week at No. 7 in offensive efficiency in those same KenPom ratings and ranked No. 3 nationally with 88.8 points per game going into Tuesday night’s matchup with Vanderbilt.

For those who think a terrific offense can make up for a mediocre defense in the NCAA Tournament, well, think again.

Over the past 20 seasons in which the NCAA Tournament was played, there have been a total of 38 teams that had a top-10 offense nationally but rated outside the top 100 in defense. Nearly all of those teams were sent packing early in March Madness.

Of those 38 offensively excellent, defensively deficient squads, five didn’t make the NCAA Tournament at all. Seventeen lost in the first round. Another nine lost in the round of 32. Five of the seven teams that made it out of the tournament’s first weekend lost in the Sweet Sixteen.

That leaves just two — in the past 20 NCAA tournaments, remember — that went further.

The most recent outlier was the 2016 Notre Dame squad — ninth in offense, 158th in defense — that advanced to the Elite Eight, but those Fighting Irish had an advantageous path, getting to play an 11 seed, a 14 seed and a 7 seed in their first three games. They ultimately lost 88-74 to North Carolina in the regional finals.

The other was responsible for some haunting memories around here. The 2003 Marquette squad — second in offense, 109th in defense — scored three single-digit victories (one in overtime) before ending No. 1-ranked UK’s 26-game winning streak to advance to the Final Four.

That Marquette team also featured future Hall of Famer Dwyane Wade, who dropped 29 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in the 83-69 victory over Kentucky. After ending the Wildcats’ season, Marquette’s defense suffered an unceremonious exit, losing 94-61 to Kansas in the Final Four.

Those offensively efficient teams in question have also been early NCAA Tournament upset victims.

The highest-rated among them — 2-seeded Missouri in 2012 — got beat 86-84 by 15-seeded Norfolk State in the first round. In the past 10 years, three other such teams have been seeded 4 or better on Selection Sunday. Two advanced to the second round as 3 seeds, losing there. The other — 4-seeded Wichita State in 2018 — got beat in the first round by 13-seeded Marshall.

That’s a whole lot of recent history that says Kentucky needs to shore up its defense, and fast, if the Wildcats are expecting to last long once March Madness begins.

How can UK fix its defense?

Kentucky started this week tied for 319th nationally (out of 351 teams) in scoring defense, surrendering 78.4 points per game. Only two high-major schools have been worse. Michigan (7-15, 2-9 Big Ten) has given up 78.8 points per game. DePaul (3-19, 0-11 Big East) has given up 79.4 points per game (and already fired its head coach in the middle of the season).

Obviously, part of the reason the Cats are so far down in that stat is because their faster pace leads to more possessions — and more scoring opportunities — for the other team, but a bigger part is the poor defense.

Those looking for potential paths for Kentucky to get to the Final Four in anything close to its current state will point to last season’s Miami team — sixth in offense, 99th in defense — as evidence that it’s possible. But remember just how big of an outlier those Hurricanes were — the only team outside the top 50 in defensive efficiency in the past decade to make it that far.

The more logical path for the Cats is the one they can control the most: get better on defense.

“We can improve on a lot of things,” UK assistant Bruiser Flint said Monday.

The veteran coach pointed to breakdowns on out-of-bounds plays and a failure to get to 50/50 balls as areas that cost Kentucky double-digit points in the eventual 103-92 loss to Tennessee two days earlier.

“Those are small things that beat you in a game,” he said.

He said the out-of-bounds breakdowns resulted from “no communication” in those moments. Freshman guard Rob Dillingham, who scored 35 points against the Vols, said immediately after the game that the Cats lacked the proper amount of “fight” and effort, especially on those 50/50 balls, as well as on the defensive glass.

“If we really want to win, we’ll dig in and learn from the film,” Dillingham said. “But if we don’t, we’re just gonna keep playing like it’s a joke.”

Obviously, the Cats want to win, Dillingham made clear.

Rebounding has been an issue for most of the season. The Vols beat the Cats 44-38 on the boards, and — while the second-chance points ended up tied at 22-all — Tennessee managed five offensive rebounds and 21 total points on its first 10 possessions, putting the Cats in an early hole they never fully climbed out of.

And the Vols played a much more physical brand of basketball throughout the night, similar to what South Carolina did to the Cats in a shockingly one-sided 79-62 victory the previous week.

“After South Carolina, you know it’s coming,” Flint said. “I mean, that’s how you explain it. You can teach box outs and all the stuff like that, but in the end it’s about you doing it. But I think everybody knows that — after we lost South Carolina, and how physical they played us — that’s the way most teams are going to try and play us. …

“If I’m playing against a young team, I’m saying the same thing. ‘Let me see how they handle the physicality.’”

Kentucky also hasn’t played at full strength yet this season, something Calipari has made sure to point out, especially after recent losses.

“Let’s get our team together,” he said after the Tennessee game, which starting point guard D.J. Wagner watched from the bench, out with an injured ankle. UK is now 0-3 in games without Wagner, who first suffered that ankle injury in late November and has missed the losses to UNC Wilmington on Dec. 2, Florida last week and then Tennessee three days later as a result.

It’s fair to point to the lack of lineup continuity — only three Kentucky players have played in every game this season — as a reason for the lack of communication and connectivity on the defensive end. But it’s also probably foolish to expect this team to evolve into anything resembling a lock-down team on that end of the court, even when (or if) all the Cats are healthy at the same time.

At this point — now two-thirds of the way through the regular season — Kentucky’s best hope is to get everyone back, keep them on the court, and figure out a way to simply become a relatively competent defense, by Calipari’s usual standards.

The Cats have still been getting beat consistently on straight-line drives, UK’s players often get out of place when the opposing team starts whipping the ball around in the halfcourt, and the team has struggled with switching in various scenarios, but better communication could alleviate some of the points they’re giving up in all of those situations.

As Kentucky’s trio of 7-footers get better acclimated, perhaps rim-protection will become a more consistent element of UK’s defense. And if those players can come along — and if the athletic, 6-8 Adou Thiero can stay healthy — perhaps the Wildcats’ rebounding will pick up, limiting some of those second-chance opportunities for opponents.

There are no easy fixes here. There certainly aren’t any quick ones. But, short of a miracle, something has to change for Kentucky to live up to its ultimate goal.

“It’s very frustrating,” Dillingham said of all the questions about UK’s “D” this season. “And I don’t know if (you) look at it as like, ‘We don’t want to fix it.’ But, obviously, we do want to fix it. We want to win games. … We’re going to fix it, and we’re going to get better at it.”

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