Three reasons TCU will win or lose its rivalry matchup with Baylor
It’s a rivalry week edition of three reasons why as the Horned Frogs are set to host Baylor in what’s now being called the Bluebonnet Battle.
Personally I preferred Revivalry, but hey there are bigger things to worry about for both teams than the name of a rivalry game.
TCU (4-6 overall, 1-5 in Big 12) desperately needs this win to have any shot of reaching a bowl game while Baylor is just looking for good vibes to end the season after a second straight disappointing season after winning the league in the 2021.
It’s another game where TCU is a double-digit favorite, though the Horned Frogs have experienced plenty of upsets in that position this season. Here’s three reasons why that will, or won’t happen again on Saturday.
Three reasons why TCU will defeat Baylor
1. The run game: The ground game has been hit or miss for TCU as the team has gotten deeper into Big 12 play, but it was Emani Bailey’s persistence running through the tackles that helped the Horned Frogs climb back into last week’s matchup against Texas. Bailey is top-20 in the country with 1,006 rushing yards and he needs to be the focal point on Saturday.
Opponents are averaging five yards per carry and nearly 190 yards per game against the Baylor defense. TCU has to commit to the run and wear down the Bears.
2. Struggling offense: TCU’s defense has struggled against some of the better teams on the schedule, but one thing the Horned Frogs deserve credit for is not allowing bad offenses to have big days. West Virginia, Houston, Iowa State and BYU were all kept in check even if TCU didn’t come out with a win.
That would suggest that a Baylor team that is 98th in scoring shouldn’t have its breakout moment Saturday. At 22.9 points per game, if the Horned Frogs can limit Baylor to 21 points or less that should be enough to get to five wins.
3. Better personnel: Across the board there’s a bit of a talent gap that TCU has to take advantage of on Saturday. According to the 247Sports team talent rankings the Horned Frogs have the 19th most talented roster while Baylor is all the way down at 48. Even if you want to say TCU is closer to 25 and Baylor is closer to 40 that’s still a significant gap.
The best way to let the talent shine is to play mistake free football or at the very least to keep them at a minimum. If TCU can do that, then the talent will eventually wear down Baylor.
Three reasons why Baylor will upset TCU
1. TCU turnovers: Ball security has been the biggest issue derailing TCU this year as the Horned Frogs lost the turnover battle again against the Longhorns including Millard Bradford fumbling an interception return that would’ve put TCU deep in Texas territory. If there’s anyway for a listless Baylor offense to find confidence, it’s to get turnovers that lead to short fields.
No matter the competition, it’s hard to win games when you have more giveaways than your opponent.
2. Shapen gets hot: Blake Shapen has dealt with injuries and a bad offensive line, but the quarterbacks has moments where he can get hot and really sling it. He’s thrown for over 250 yards in six of the seven games he’s started and has a four to one touchdown to interception ratio. He needs to be protected or his accuracy suffers, which means there’s a lot of pressure on TCU’s defensive line to generate pressure.
3. Lack of bodies at receiver: While Baylor is ranked No. 3 in the Big 12 in passing yards allowed it’s a bit misleading as the Bears allow the second most yards per reception and the fourth most passing touchdowns. While the unit is exploitable it’s important to remember TCU will be short handed without Dylan Wright, Warren Thompson and potentially Jack Bech.
After the breakout game of Savion Williams expect the Bears to throw double teams at him constantly. Will other receivers like JP Richardson and Jaylon Robinson be able to step up? If not things won’t be easy for Josh Hoover.
