Truss and Sunak must get blows in early to win over party, says pollster

Liz Truss is the favourite to win the race to become the next Prime Minister but could stumble against Rishi Sunak in crunch live TV debates, polling experts have said.

According to a poll conducted by YouGov, 54 per cent of Tory members prefer the Foreign Secretary to Mr Sunak, who polled 35 per cent.

While the former chancellor came out on top in all the votes by Tory MPs, his position on reducing taxes only when inflation is brought under control and his fine for attending a party in Downing Street during lockdown meant he was less popular with the 160,000 Conservative members who will decide the contest.

But pollsters agreed that the contest was far from certain with much hinging on whether Mr Sunak can get his message across early in the campaign and how Ms Truss performs in two live TV debates — one on the BBC on Monday and a second on Sky News on August 4.

Tory peer and pollster Lord Hayward told Sky News that with ballot papers set to be sent out in the first week of August, it was vital the rivals gained early momentum. He said: “Liz Truss didn’t do well in either of the two debates [so far], so for her those next two appearances and any individual examinations at length will be key... Many people having received their ballot will just return it asap. You need to get the blow, the comments in early.”

Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University said Mr Sunak’s chances depended on whether he could bounce back from controversy over his fine and questions over his family’s tax and financial affairs.

“If we were going back three or four months ago ... there’s little doubt Rishi Sunak would have been the favourite. So part of the question is whether or not he can regain some of the popularity, not only with the wider public but with Conservative members.”

Henry Hill, deputy editor of the Conservative Home website, argued that Mr Sunak is seen by party members as the “high tax candidate”. By contrast, Ms Truss has vowed to slash taxes and reverse April’s 1.25 percentage points rise in National Insurance.

Mr Hill told the BBC that because Tory members can vote early, Mr Sunak may not have the opportunity to convince people of his campaign and his programme for government.

“If Tory members vote in late August, Rishi could pull it back,” he said. “If they vote early, he couldn’t”.