Where is Hurricane Beryl headed next? Should the Gulf Coast prepare?
Hurricane Beryl continues to charge across the Caribbean Sea after the then-Category 4 hurricane slammed into Grenada on Monday with catastrophic wind damage, life-threatening storm surge flooding and 10 inches of rain.
The hurricane strengthened into a monster Category 5 hurricane earlier on Tuesday but has since weakened back to a Category 4 with winds of 150 mph, and forecasters say it could remain a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) through at least Wednesday.
Here is the latest forecast for Hurricane Beryl.
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Beryl weakened slightly on Tuesday after reaching Category 5 strength. Winds are now 150 mph. It is headed west-northwest at a quick clip of 22 mph and is south of the Dominican Republic.
The NHC said it's now possible that Beryl will remain a major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica and still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.
Due to the threat, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatán and Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for much of the coast.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and a Hurricane Watch was issued for parts of the southern coast of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the southern coast of Haiti and parts of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic.
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"The questions arise late Thursday or Friday as the storm approaches Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. "Beryl will presumably be a weaker storm at that time due to atmospheric factors and possible interaction with the tall mountains on Jamaica. The water in the Caribbean is extraordinarily warm, however, so it might regenerate quickly. This adds up to high uncertainty about Beryl's strength when it approaches the Yucatán.
The current track would take Beryl into the Yucatán Peninsula on Friday morning.
But Beryl is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche and possibly the western Gulf of Mexico.
"What happens past Jamaica? Well, there's a lot of questions," said FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin. "We have this upper-level dip in the jet stream that will create a weakness here. And when it comes to the path of a hurricane, they like the path of least resistance. They don't want to work too hard."
A ridge of high pressure that has been baking the southern Plains may weaken the protective atmospheric wall currently shielding the South from Beryl.
"So that means that if you live in South Texas and also for family and friends in Mexico, you got to watch this forecast very closely," Merwin said, adding we may not have good answers on the forecast until Thursday once Beryl emerges from the Yucatán Peninsula.
"Does it emerge a little bit farther off to the north, or does it dive really tucked down into the Bay of Campeche?" Merwin said. "And that will be key information for what this means for Mexico and maybe South Texas. The computer models favor more of an issue for Mexico, but South Texas is not out of the woods yet."
To that end, the very southern end of Texas, including the city of Brownsville, is on the edge of Beryl's forecast cone from the NHC as of Tuesday morning.
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The NWS office in Brownsville, Texas, agreed and stated that we should better understand where Beryl is headed after Thursday and Friday.
"All eyes are really on Days 5-7 and beyond, with Hurricane Beryl potentially lurking somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, it is still too early to lean one way or another, with a wide spread in model guidance," stated the NWS.
"General consensus among the experts at the National Hurricane Center is Beryl will run into some wind shear and likely downgrade before approaching the Yucatán late Thursday into Friday," the forecast discussion continued. "We may not know much more than that until Thursday or Friday."
BERYL MAKES HISTORY BY BECOMING STRONGEST HURRICANE TO FORM IN JUNE
Hurricane Beryl became the second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and made history while the storm rapidly intensified from a tropical depression to tropical storm and then a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) in less than 48 hours. Beryl is the strongest June hurricane as well as the earliest a Category 4 storm formed since records started in 1851.
Original article source: Where is Hurricane Beryl headed next? Should the Gulf Coast prepare?
