Will we have a white Christmas in Kansas City? What to know about the winter forecast

In the heat of summer, it can be refreshing to imagine a brisk, chilly Kansas City blanketed in snow.

Winter-lovers may be wondering whether a white Christmas is in store for the metro.

So far, it’s not looking promising that this winter will bring ample snowfall: Meteorologists predict that December, January and February will see temperatures slightly above average, with a typical amount of precipitation.

Average winter temperatures in the metro hover around 29-33°F, according to historical data. And Kansas City’s cold months are generally pretty dry — but even if we do see precipitation, slightly elevated temperatures mean it’s more likely to be rain than snow.

John Kurtz, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Kansas City office, told The Star that climate modeling can only predict broad trends this far in the future. That means it’s impossible to know months in advance what the weather will look like on a specific day — like Christmas of 2023.

“What happens in a 24 hour window isn’t indicative of the average over a month or two months,” he told The Star.

But data on annual weather patterns and current ocean temperatures can give experts some idea of what the winter months will look like. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center publishes these three-month predictions on temperature and precipitation maps.

Kurtz added that meteorologists are almost certain that a weather pattern called El Niño will persist through the winter for the first time since the winter of 2018-2019. But he added that this pattern doesn’t usually have a big impact on weather in the Midwest.

“It doesn’t impact us too much, but it might cause drier than normal conditions,” he said — another blow to those hoping for a white Christmas.

What does the Old Farmer’s Almanac say?

The National Weather Service’s predictions defy those made by a popular folk weather guide: the Old Farmer’s Almanac.

This year, the Almanac predicts a colder-than-normal winter in the Heartland region, which covers most of Missouri, all of Iowa, the eastern parts of Kansas and Nebraska and the western part of Illinois.

That guide’s successor, the Farmer’s Almanac, also makes weather predictions — although this title is often used interchangeably to refer to either publication.

However, both Almanacs’ predictions should always be taken with a grain of salt. They each use a “secret formula” that isn’t available to the public, making them impossible to verify — unlike National Weather Service projections.

One study found the original Almanac’s predictions to be only around 52% accurate.

Do you have more questions about weather patterns in Kansas City? Ask the Service Journalism team at kcq@kcstar.com.