Why Trump won't pick who he should pick for VP running mate

There's one running mate Donald Trump could choose who would heal the GOP's divisions, bring an independent donor base, appeal to voters he doesn't − in short, do the most to help him actually win the White House in November.

So, naturally, Nikki Haley is just about the only prospect he has already flatly ruled out.

"Nikki Haley is not under consideration for the V.P. slot, but I wish her well!" Trump wrote on the social media platform Truth Social in May to squash the suggestion he was thinking about putting her on his ticket. His antipathy is reportedly personal, even though she served as his UN ambassador.

The former South Carolina governor lacks the No. 1 job requirement for Trump: A loyalty guarantee.

The fact that she ran against him for the nomination isn't the problem. Other primary competitors from 2020 and 2016 are on the list of the frequently mentioned, among them North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Housing and Urban Development secretary Ben Carson.

But Haley did better, stayed in longer and failed to fall quickly in line when she finally withdrew from the race in March, giving her an independent standing that she has been careful not to relinquish, at least so far.

Those characteristics make her the choice who would be both most toxic to Trump and most valuable to him.

Similarly cold calculations prompted Democrat John F. Kennedy to overrule the objections of his brother and pick Lyndon Johnson as his running mate in 1960. That's also why Republican Ronald Reagan overruled the objections of his wife and picked George H.W. Bush in 1980.

The strategy worked: Both nominees won their elections. Indeed, both of their vice presidents also won the White House down the road, and in landslides, in LBJ's case after assuming the presidency in the wake of JFK's assassination.

Trump has demonstrated he doesn't reject all of the traditional criteria for choosing a vice president.

Witness Mike Pence, his pick in 2016. The Indiana governor bolstered Trump's standing with white evangelical voters, an important part of the Republican coalition that might have been put off by his multiple marriages, coarse language and freewheeling personal behavior.

But Pence was also willing to be completely loyal to Trump − right up until the final two weeks of their tenure when he rejected Trump's entreaties to join efforts to overturn their election defeat. That brought chants of "Hang Mike Pence" from the Jan. 6 rioters and made him a likely star witness if and when Trump goes to trial on federal charges of conspiracy and obstruction.

Now GOP hopefuls have been conducting open auditions for the ticket with declarations of fealty.

By Axios' count, Burgum has been dispatched to at least 10 different states to campaign with or for the former president. Scott has hosted fundraisers. Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance helped with prep for the first presidential debate.

To be clear, while the identity of the running mate sparks endless media speculation beforehand, it typically makes a difference only on the margins in the election. Voters usually focus squarely on the presidential nominees.

The impact is often bigger on the running mates themselves. Win or lose in November, landing the No. 2 spot would position them to be among the most serious contenders to lead their party after Trump has left the political arena − a presidential stamp of approval, as it were.

Consider this: Sixteen years after Barack Obama picked the senior senator from Delaware as his running mate, Joe Biden is seeking his second term in the White House.

In the past, nominees sometimes have chosen a running mate who can bolster their strength in a key state or region. In 1976, Southern moderate Jimmy Carter picked Northern liberal Walter Mondale for the Democratic ticket. (They won.) In 1988, Massachusetts Gov. Mike Dukakis picked Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, an echo of the Boston-Austin axis of 1960. (They lost.)

Geography doesn't seem to be much of a factor for Trump, though. Three of the names on his reported short list − Rubio, Carson and Rep. Byron Donalds − live in Trump's home state of Florida.

That would create a considerable complication. Under the 12th Amendment of the Constitution, Florida's electors couldn't vote for Florida residents for both president and vice president. In this case, Trump's running mate would presumably have to move elsewhere, a particularly odd prospect for one of the state's sitting members of Congress.

That why Dick Cheney in 2000 quietly moved back to Wyoming from Texas when Texas Gov. George W. Bush decided to put him on the GOP ticket.

In the past, nominees also have at times tapped a running mate who represents a different demographic, one way to target a key voter group. In 1984, Mondale chose New York Rep. Geraldine Ferraro, the first woman on a major party's national ticket. In 2008, John McCain picked the first woman on a Republican ticket, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska.

And in 2012, baby boomer Mitt Romney put the first Gen Xer on a national ticket, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, then 42.

Mondale, McCain and Romney all lost, but their choices did help energize their conventions and fuel interest in contests in which they lagged.

The names Trump is said to be considering include some choices who would be groundbreakers for the GOP, including Scott, Donalds and Carson − all Black men. If chosen, Rubio would be the first Hispanic person on a national ticket.

There are female contenders on Trump's long list, too, among them Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik. They could become the nation's second female vice president by defeating the first one, Kamala Harris.

With his pick of Pence in 2016, though, Trump didn't choose someone with the groundbreaking demographics or the charisma that might steal the spotlight from him.

With those standards, this time around, there is someone with a stolid demeanor and unquestioned loyalty: Paging Doug Burgum, perhaps?

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump's VP running mate should be Nikki Haley. Why he won't pick her