New RCMP report on Duffy, Wright could affect Monday's byelections: pollsters

Monday is byelection day in Canada.

Voters in Bourassa (Quebec), Provencher (Manitoba), Brandon-Souris (Manitoba) and Toronto Centre (Ontario) will head to the polls to elect new members of Parliament.

A recent Forum Research poll suggests that the Tories have a strong lead in Provencher, Liberals are leading in Bourassa and Toronto Centre and that there's a dog-fight between the two parties in Brandon-Souris.

Some of Canada's top pollsters, however, now tell Yahoo Canada News that the polls could change — especially in Brandon-Souris — following the release of the latest RCMP court filing into the Nigel Wright/Mike Duffy affair.

That report, released on Wednesday, alleges that Wright committed bribery, fraud and breach of trust when he gave Sen. Duffy $90,000 so that he could repay inappropriate expense claims; it suggests that the PMO attempted to influence at least three Tory senators with regard to whitewashing Duffy's audit report; and it implicates other PMO and Tory staffers.

[ Related: Nigel Wright broke the law by cutting Duffy $90,000 cheque, police allege ]

"The usual view is that byelections mean little outside of media and party faithful," Ekos pollster Frank Graves said in an email exchange on Thursday afternoon.

"[These byelections] might be different. Political engagement is pretty high right now. [There's] huge awareness of the Senate scandal and it is a massive and growing problem for the Conservative Party.

"So yes it will affect vote. Not sure it will alter outcome in terms of shifting winner but [Brandon-Souris] is most likely. I am guessing that CPC are going to be punished for mounting ethics storm."

[ Related: Harper grilled over explosive new allegations involving Nigel Wright payment to Senator Mike Duffy ]

Abacus Data CEO David Coletto also suggests ramifications for the Tories.

"The scandal may deflate vote turnout of Conservative Party supporters and give an edge to an upstart campaign like [Liberal Rolf] Dindale's in Brandon-Souris," he told Yahoo.

"With by-elections already having notoriously low turnout, the scandal could increase the trend if many Tory voters sit on their hands and stay home on Monday.

"In Bourassa and Toronto Centre, I don't think the scandal will have much impact on the outcome. We will have to see whether Tom Mulcair's performance and profile throughout his questioning of the Prime Minister gives the NDP candidates in those ridings a little boost."

[ More Politics: B.C. Marijuana petitioners face uphill battle in final two weeks of decriminalization campaign ]

It appears that the Tories are keenly aware of the Senate scandals' potential effects on their byelection hopes — again, especially in Brandon-Souris.

Earlier this week the party mailed-out a two page letter — signed by Stephen Harper — to voters in Brandon-Souris boasting about the Conservatives' record on issues such as the long-gun registry, ending the wheat board monopoly and job growth. In the letter, Harper also spends some time attacking Liberal leader Justin Trudeau.

"Justin Trudeau's plan to legalize marijuana will make it more accessible to our kids and encourage recreational drug use," Harper notes

"This is the wrong message to send to our children."

There's also this flyer from last week.

And coincidentally — or not — Harper will be in Manitoba on Friday for a special announcement.

Do you think it could be a funding announcement just two days before the byelections?

(Photo from Twitter)

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