2024 Tony Awards Predictions
Variety‘s Awards Circuit is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year. It features the official predictions for the Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, and Tony Awards, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Tony Awards Predictions: All Categories
Weekly Commentary (Updated June 14, 2024): Are the 2024 Tony Awards the toughest to predict in years?
Okay, maybe not, and there are certain categories whose outcomes feel preordained. But there are just as many races — and a few really big races at that — that feel like anything could happen. Perhaps fittingly for a season so chaotically crowded with a diverse array of work, this year, the Tonys are full of competitions pulling voters in two (or more) directions at once.
Best musical? It’ll be one of two — but which one is anybody’s guess? Lead actor in a play? It’s a close one. Best score? Just throw a dart at the nominees list; you’re just as likely to be right as any other prognosticator.
Making predictions this year feels like a fool’s game, even more than usual. Let’s play.
The 77th Tony Awards promise an exciting ceremony hosted by the talented and charismatic Ariana DeBose, an Oscar-winning actress known for her dynamic performances. The event will be broadcast on CBS from the David H. Koch Theater at Lincoln Center on Sunday, June 16.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
Best Musical
And the Nominees are:
“The Outsiders”
“Hell’s Kitchen”
“Suffs”
“Illinoise”
“Water for Elephants”
The Prediction: “The Outsiders”
Earlier in the season, the top Tony seemed a sure thing for “Hell’s Kitchen.” The show was a quick transfer from a buzzy Off-Broadway run; it’s got an appealing storyline about a budding young artist, played by a breakout talent, and the show’s co-creator, Grammy winner Alicia Keys, has proven a savvy awards campaigner. However, more recent conversations with Tony voters have revealed a bias for “The Outsiders,” the artfully gritty musical adaptation of a classic American young adult novel. There’s enough support there that the show seems to give “Hell’s Kitchen” a real run for its money.
Which show will come out on top? It’s the biggest award of the night and perhaps the hardest race to call. We’re going with “Outsiders” for our pick, but we’re prepared to be wrong.
Best Play
“Stereophonic”
“Mother Play”
“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”
“Mary Jane”
“Prayer for the French Republic”
The Prediction: “Stereophonic”
Okay, this one’s death-and-taxes certain. In a strong year for new plays on Broadway, “Stereophonic” stole the show, wowing voters with its verité look at the members of a 1970s rock band as they bicker, banter, break up, and reconcile through the arduous process of recording a second album. With a technically impressive staging, a tight-knit ensemble, and killer original tunes — played live onstage by the actors — “Stereophonic” was a late addition to the season, but it immediately became the Tony frontrunner. It’ll take home the trophy Sunday night.
Best Revival of a Musical
“Merrily We Roll Along”
“Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club”
“Gutenberg! The Musical!”
“The Who’s Tommy”
The Prediction: “Merrily We Roll Along”
Here’s another one you can bet on: “Merrily We Roll Along” will take the trophy for musical revival, scoring for a production that has successfully resuscitated the reputation of beloved composer Stephen Sondheim’s most notorious flop. In the years since its short Broadway premiere, plenty of creative teams have tried to crack the show’s code, which moves backward through time as it tells the story of a trio of creative friends who drift apart throughout their lives and careers. Director Maria Friedman finally seems to have made the show work, largely thanks to a top-tier cast of actors, including Jonathan Groff, Lindsay Mendez, and Daniel Radcliffe. This show stands poised to emerge as one of the night’s big winners.
Best Revival of a Play
“Appropriate”
“Purlie Victorious”
“An Enemy of the People”
The Prediction: “Appropriate”
Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ funny, scathing take on the American family drama, “Appropriate,” was one of the buzziest plays of the season — but it’s arguably a little weird that the show, a relatively young, 10-year-old play that’s never been on Broadway before, was deemed a revival. That leaves the best play race open for “Stereophonic.” But here in the revival category, “Appropriate” seems the choice for most voters. Support here isn’t quite universal — “Purlie Victorious” and “An Enemy of the People” get some love, too — but our money’s on “Appropriate” winning the gold.
Actor in a Leading Role (Musical)
Jonathan Groff, “Merrily We Roll Along”
Brian D’Arcy James, “Days of Wine and Roses”
Brody Grant, “The Outsiders”
Dorian Harewood, “The Notebook”
Eddie Redmayne, “Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club”
The Prediction: Jonathan Groff, “Merrily We Roll Along”
Most of the certainty in Sunday night’s competitions are related to “Merrily We Roll Along” — and the race for best actor in a musical is no exception. Jonathan Groff seems to have this one in the bag for his sympathetic yet unsentimental performance as a talented composer whose Hollywood work pulls him away from his closest friends. His take on the role is a big part of why the “Merrily” revival works as well as it does, and voters are poised to reward him for it.
Actor in a Leading Role (Play)
Leslie Odom Jr., “Purlie Victorious”
Jeremy Strong, “An Enemy of the People”
William Jackson Harper, “Uncle Vanya”
Liev Schreiber, “Doubt”
Michael Stuhlbarg, “Patriots”
The Prediction: Leslie Odom Jr., “Purlie Victorious”
In the lead actor in a play category, two names lead the pack — and it’s anyone’s guess who will triumph. We give the slight edge here to “Hamilton” Tony winner Leslie Odom Jr. for his confidently comic performance in the revelatory revival of “Purlie Victorious.” Still, he’s neck-and-neck with “Succession” Emmy winner Jeremy Strong at the head of the startlingly timely revival of “An Enemy of the People.” Based on conversations with Tony voters, either one of these two could claim the crown.
Actress in a Leading Role (Musical)
Maleah Joi Moon, “Hell’s Kitchen”
Kelli O’Hara, “Days of Wine and Roses”
Eden Espinosa, “Lempicka”
Maryann Plunkett, “The Notebook”
Gayle Rankin, “Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club”
The Prediction: Maleah Joi Moon, “Hell’s Kitchen”
The outcome of the lead actress in a musical race is significantly less clear. Still, signs point to the award going to the breakout young star of “Hell’s Kitchen,” Maleah Joi Moon, making a remarkably assured debut as a young woman growing up in New York in the 90s. Moon’s biggest competition is Kelli O’Hara for her impeccable work in a roller-coaster role in “Days of Wine and Roses.”
Actress in a Leading Role (Play)
Sarah Paulson, “Appropriate”
Jessica Lange, “Mother Play”
Rachel McAdams, “Mary Jane”
Amy Ryan, “Doubt”
Betsy Aidem, “Prayer for the French Republic”
The Prediction: Sarah Paulson, “Appropriate”
The race for lead actress in a play has more of a clear frontrunner in Sarah Paulson for a lacerating performance in “Appropriate” as a woman confronting the uncomfortable secrets buried in her family history. She’s poised to get the award in a category that has no shortage of formidable talents and famous names.
Actor in a Featured Role (Musical)
Daniel Radcliffe, “Merrily We Roll Along”
Sky Lakota-Lynch, “The Outsiders”
Joshua Boone, “The Outsiders”
Steven Skybell, “Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club”
Brandon Victor Dixon, “Hell’s Kitchen”
Roger Bart, “Back to the Future”
The Prediction: Daniel Radcliffe, “Merrily We Roll Along”
There’s a solid chance that the two categories for featured performance in a musical could go to two co-stars of “Merrily We Roll Along” — which means, with Groff taking lead actor, the show could walk away with three of the night’s four musical acting categories. (“Hamilton” did the same in 2016.) That seems the most likely outcome here, with Daniel Radcliffe attracting robust support for his appealing performance as a striving musical theater writer.
Actor in a Featured Role (Play)
Will Brill, “Stereophonic”
Corey Stoll, “Appropriate”
Jim Parsons, “Mother Play”
Eli Gelb, “Stereophonic”
Tom Pecinka, “Stereophonic”
The Prediction: Will Brill, “Stereophonic”
One of the biggest surprises in the Tony nominations was the dominance of “Stereophonic” in the featured performer races. Three castmates from the show are in the running for featured actor, and two more in featured actress. Of all these folks, the two standouts are Sarah Pidgeon, playing a role loosely inspired by Stevie Nicks, and Will Brill, who brings a deeply real sense of comedy to his character’s struggles with love and sobriety. Both of them have strong support from voters, and because they’re the standout roles in the season’s standout new play, they’ve got an advantage here.
But the race for featured actor has formidable competition in Corey Stoll. He holds his own opposite Sarah Paulson’s force-of-nature performance in “Appropriate.” He’s a true contender here, and if the trio of “Stereophonic” actors in the category split the vote, Stoll will rise to the top.
Actress in a Featured Role (Musical)
Lindsay Mendez, “Merrily We Roll Along”
Kecia Lewis, “Hell’s Kitchen”
Shoshana Bean, “Hell’s Kitchen”
Bebe Neuwirth, “Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club”
Nikki M. James, Suffs
Amber Iman, “Lempicka”
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, “Spamalot”
The Prediction: Lindsay Mendez, “Merrily We Roll Along”
Alongside her co-stars, Tony winner Lindsay Mendez gets a lot of love for “Merrily We Roll Along,” but in her race, a couple of other contenders — notably Kecia Lewis and Shoshana Bean, both of “Hell’s Kitchen” — have turned voters heads as well. Mendez still looks primed to win this one, but don’t count out those “Hell’s Kitchen” castmates, one of whom just might sneak into pole position.
Actress in a Featured Role (Play)
Sarah Pidgeon, “Stereophonic”
Kara Young, “Purlie Victorious”
Celia Keenan-Bolger, “Mother Play”
Juliana Canfield, “Stereophonic”
Quincy Tyler Bernstine, “Doubt”
The Prediction: Sarah Pidgeon, “Stereophonic”
Meanwhile, Kara Young is the one to watch in the race for featured actress. She’s a well-liked young star who’s been nominated three times in the last three years — and many in the industry think now is her time to win for a boldly comic performance in “Purlie Victorious” that has at least one voter comparing her to Lucille Ball. Young has real momentum that could push her to the front of the line.
Best Book
Adam Rapp and Justin Levine, “The Outsiders”
Shaina Taub, “Suffs”
Bekah Brunstetter, “The Notebook”
Kristoffer Diaz, “Hell’s Kitchen”
Rick Elice, “Water for Elephants”
The Prediction: “The Outsiders”
The award for best book of a musical feels like one that might shift depending on how a voter voted in other categories. If someone went with “Stereophonic” for score, then maybe they would reward “The Outsiders” or “Suffs” with book. If they went with “Outsiders” for score, then maybe they would give the book to “Suffs.” Also in the mix is “The Notebook,” which also has its admirers.
Best Score
Will Butler, “Stereophonic”
Jamestown Revival (Jonathan Clay and Zach Chance) and Justin Levine, “The Outsiders”
Shaina Taub, “Suffs”
Adam Guettel, “Days of Wine and Roses”
David Byrne and Fatboy Slim, “Here Lies Love”
The Prediction: “Stereophonic”
Could the original rock tunes written for a play take home the Tony for best score this year? It’s a real possibility in a race that feels like anyone’s to win. Of the two best musical frontrunners, “The Outsiders” is the only one in the category (with “Hell’s Kitchen” ineligible thanks to its score made up mostly of pre-existing Alicia Keys hits). So “Outsiders” is a real possibility for this one, and so is the accomplished score for “Suffs,” the suffragist history musical from the well-liked creator-performer Shaina Taub. But neither title is a clear frontrunner — and Will Butler’s compelling work for “Stereophonic,” heard mostly in snatches throughout the play, gets a lot of love for feeling both believably period and compellingly timeless. We think “Stereophonic” might clinch it.
Director (Musical)
Maria Friedman, “Merrily We Roll Along”
Danya Taymor, “The Outsiders”
Jessica Stone, “Water for Elephants”
Leigh Silverman, “Suffs”
Michael Greif, “Hell’s Kitchen”
The Prediction: Maria Friedman, “Merrily We Roll Along”
Among the few truly sure things this Tony season are the two races for director — one for best direction of a musical and one for best staging of a play. The director behind the universally beloved production of “Merrily We Roll Along,” Maria Friedman, will take home the trophy for her success in breathing new life into a musical she’s been working on in various capacities for years.
Director (Play)
Daniel Aukin, “Stereophonic”
Kenny Leon, “Purlie Victorious”
Lila Neugebauer, “Appropriate”
Whitney White, “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”
Anne Kaufman, “Mary Jane”
The Prediction: Daniel Aukin, “Stereophonic”
In the play category, Daniel Aukin will score for his loose yet rigorous work that makes a highly complicated, technically precise production look effortless.
Best Choreography
Justin Peck, “Illinoise”
Camille A. Brown, “Hell’s Kitchen”
Rick Kuperman and Jeff Kuperman, “The Outsiders”
Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll, “Water for Elephants”
Annie-B Parson, “Here Lies Love”
The Prediction: Justin Peck, “Illinoise”
In conversations with voters, two names consistently came up for this category: Justin Peck, for the movement that tells the story in the dance-musical “Illinoise,” and Camille A. Brown, who’s well-liked in the industry and getting a lot of support for her moves in “Hell’s Kitchen.” They’re both solid contenders; we give Peck the slight edge, partly because it’s the showier contribution in a musical that relies entirely on choreography to tell the story, with no spoken dialogue.
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