What is Andy Beshear’s path to victory? Kentucky political experts weigh in.

As election day approaches, Kentucky’s political class is buzzing about Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear’s re-election battle against Republican nominee Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

It’s a pivotal election for Kentucky, and it’s also the most expensive gubernatorial race in state history.

While Beshear has been up in nearly all the polls and has spent more on advertising, veterans of Kentucky politics warn that polling in the state regularly underrates Republicans and the race could prove close — after all, Beshear only won in 2019 against unpopular incumbent Republican Matt Bevin by a slim 5,000-vote margin.

So what needs to happen for Beshear to win a second term? How could he falter? What would a Beshear win, or loss, say about the state?

The Herald-Leader reached out to more than a dozen people involved in Kentucky politics to get their perspective. Here’s what they had to say when we asked these questions:

What is Andy Beshear’s path to victory?

House Majority Floor Leader Steven Rudy, R-Paducah: Low turnout out in rural areas.

Jazmin Smith, Louisville, co-host of Democratic show “My Old Kentucky Podcast”: Beshear’s path to victory is similar to 2019 — turn out voters big in Louisville and Lexington and do well in the medium-size cities, like Henderson, Paducah, Frankfort, Bowling Green, Richmond, Covington, etc.

Hannah Drake, Louisville, activist & writer: The governor has a clear path to victory if he continues doing what he is doing. Stay positive, stay focused and continue to speak about vision and unity for Kentucky. We do not move forward in this state leading with hate.

TJ Litafik, Lexington, Republican strategist: Beshear’s path to victory looks largely the same as it did in 2019 — big wins in urban Kentucky and the “collar” and college counties. Moderate to conservative Democrats will not cross over in significant numbers to back Cameron, and a reasonable number of Republican voters will support Beshear.

Larry Glover, Lexington, talk radio host: Convincing Trump supporters to cross over and support a Democratic governor. Given the former president’s popularity in Kentucky, the path to victory would be very narrow if he cannot pull in some Trump vote.

Morgan Eaves, Richmond, lobbyist and Democratic political consultant: Gov. Beshear will retain the Governor’s Mansion by securing votes from not just Democrats, but when Republicans and independents across the state choose Beshear as their top of the ticket.

Sen. Phillip Wheeler, R-Pikeville: I think Beshear has to maintain his 2019 margins in Louisville and Lexington and increase his share in Northern Kentucky and Eastern Kentucky.

Rebecca Blankenship, Berea, Democratic State Central Executive Committee member & state’s first openly transgender elected official: High turnout in the cities, strong performances in places like Bowling Green, Northern Kentucky, and northeastern Kentucky. Narrowing the margins in the collar counties around Fayette.

Chris Wiest, Kenton County, Northern Kentucky attorney and politico: Moderate women in purple areas of the state, who Andy will both need to convince and then convince to turn out, while not losing by large margins in deep red areas.

Rep. Daniel Grossberg, D-Louisville: He will have crossover appeal because of his remarkable handling of COVID, as well as several other crises. He way out-performed all expectations on that score and oversaw record economic growth. Meanwhile, there’s nothing meaningful for Cameron to run on, and he was forced to develop culture war issues.

Robert Kahne, Louisville, Kentucky Democratic Party State Central Executive Committee member & co-host of “My Old Kentucky Podcast”: Repeat the 2019 blueprint: win Louisville and Lexington big, win Kenton and Campbell counties, win small cities, win chunks of Appalachia. I think he might lose some of Appalachia that he won in ‘19, but win Fayette County by a much larger margin this time.

What county or region must Beshear win?

Jazmin Smith: He probably needs to get 65% of the vote in Jefferson County to win. I won’t say all of Northern Kentucky is a must-win because Boone is a conservative county, but he does need to do well in Kenton and Campbell, counties where he won somewhat narrowly in 2019.

Rudy: Hold his own in the east and run up the score in Louisville and Lexington.

Chris Kirkwood, Lexington, University of Kentucky political science Ph.D. candidate & elections analyst: The Northern Kentucky region at-large and Oldham County.

Grossberg: Northern Kentucky and/or some of the Louisville and Lexington suburbs. Honestly, though, he might just need to run up the number high enough in Louisville and Lexington.

Jared Smith, lobbyist and Democratic political consultant: Win Kenton and Campbell counties while running up the score in West Louisville. He’ll also need to do well in his family’s historical western Kentucky coal counties.

Glover: I think he needs to do well in Northern Kentucky. I think he’ll do very well in Louisville and Lexington, and if he can add a really good number in Northern Kentucky, it might be a good night for the governor.

Will Carle, Louisville, Democratic political consultant: All eyes on Kenton and Campbell counties. Beshear won them in ‘19 and they are a key piece to winning again in ‘23. A lot of votes are in those two counties and they have swung back and forth over the years between the two parties. I think he has to win them and that he will win them.

Litafik: Beshear must dominate in the “Golden Triangle” of Louisville, Lexington and Northern Kentucky, and maintain victory in the other smaller counties he won in 2019.

Wiest: In Northern Kentucky he will need to do better than 43-44% in Boone, and better than 47% in Kenton and Campbell, to win.

If Andy Beshear wins, it will be because of this:

Blankenship: Cameron chose an incredibly losing strategy — culture war craziness. Anybody can beat it just by looking steady, and Beshear is excellent at that. With almost any other strategy, Cameron could have won handily.

Jazmin Smith: His ability to unify people and lead with compassion. Beshear showed up for Kentuckians through a global pandemic, and two devastating natural disasters on opposite ends of the state. He also made himself an important face in celebrating Kentucky’s achievements, like announcing large economic investment projects and placing the first sports bet.

Litafik: He ran a disciplined campaign, and he presided over a largely successful first term in office that enjoyed wide support from both business and labor and brought many new jobs to Kentucky. Beshear didn’t talk down to Kentuckians and largely avoided the petty rhetoric and needless battles that plagued his predecessor.

Bill Bartleman, McCracken County commissioner and former Paducah Sun state correspondent: Successful economic development efforts, whether he’s responsible or it’s because of policies set by the legislature. He’s seen as a nice guy. He’s just “Andy,” and he relates well with constituents. Also, he’s been nonpartisan in helping regions like Western Kentucky. The big issue leading to victory will be his ad on consequences of total abortion ban.

Kirkwood: His executive actions and abortion.

Andrew Cooperrider, Nicholasville, former GOP candidate for state Senate and Treasurer: If Beshear is able to remain as non-offensive as possible to conservatives, while also having won over voters due to his handling of disasters it would equal a win. The Republican legislature has also been a check on some of Beshear’s more liberal desires, stopping the effect of them from being felt by voters. Examples include Beshear’s loose spending policies and left-leaning beliefs on social issues.

Drake: Breonna Taylor, and our current legislature has been far too extreme with issues that impact everyone — from Black people, LGBTQ people, women, etc. Everyone has been affected, and people are angry, frustrated and tired. Gov. Beshear has shown that he is a governor for the people, not just some people.

Al Cross, Frankfort, longtime Kentucky political journalist and observer: Voters made up their minds about him long ago.

Grossberg: Messaging, general appeal and an incredible field operation.

Wiest: Because he has convinced voters that he is not a radical leftist, and because he will been able to sell voters that Daniel Cameron is some kind of an extremist. He has done a decent job so far in messaging (and I would argue misleading voters).

Wheeler: He has run a very disciplined campaign.

Carle: He has touted his incredible economic record, his response to disaster relief, his steady leadership during the pandemic and his common sense outlook on governing. Let’s not forget about the robust ground game his team has put in place, they will have knocked 1 million doors before election day. That is a difference maker.

Stephen Voss, University of Kentucky political science professor: Kentucky’s misfortune was Beshear’s good fortune. He governed the state during a series of tragedies — the pandemic, flooding in the East, tornadoes in the West — and served as the face of relief efforts. The result was an incumbency advantage that few elected officials get to enjoy these days.

Kahne: He understood the electorate, raised a lot of money, put his message out there in a big way and ran really hard.

Eaves: If Gov. Beshear wins, it will be because Kentuckians view him not as a politician, but as one of us. COVID-19, natural disasters and personal tragedy have humanized Gov. Beshear like no other Kentucky governor before; he’ll win because voters know who he is.

If Andy Beshear loses, it will be because of this:

Voss: For Beshear to lose, the pre-election polling would need to be way off. Polling error usually comes from getting turnout wrong. So the most likely route to a Beshear loss would be disappointing turnout in the cities combined with surprisingly high mobilization in the smaller communities that tilt heavily GOP.

Litafik: He just got swept up in the tide of partisanship and the nationalization of politics that has trickled down from the White House to the courthouse.

Jazmin Smith: Kentucky has become an increasingly red state where the party next to your name matters. While people may be willing to vote for a candidate with moderate or progressive positions in a nonpartisan race, or even vote for the more progressive policy position on a ballot question, they are not willing to cross party lines when the R or D is there.

Glover: That Kentucky is as conservative as we think and that the Democratic Party’s problem isn’t just the quality of candidate…it might be the message.

Bartleman: His veto of bills related to conservative social issues that are important in “Bible Belt” areas of Kentucky. Also, voters who say the positive issues he campaigns on are the result of GOP legislative policies and not anything he’s done.

Drake: The world opened up and swallowed every single Democrat in the state.

Grossberg: If he loses, which I don’t see, it’s because the culture war issues got him. But I think it’s going to backfire on the Republicans with the abortion issue.

Blankenship: The Kentucky Democratic Party imported out-of-state operatives and underpaid its canvassers, likely resulting in lower-quality conversations on the doors.

What would a Beshear win say about Kentucky voters?

Glover: That Democrats can be competitive in Kentucky if they choose the right candidate. I think the future of the Kentucky Democratic Party is on the line on election night… If a very popular Democratic governor cannot win a statewide race, where do they go next?

Tres Watson, Lexington, former spokesman for the Republican Party of Kentucky: Despite the new political landscape, old-school Democratic family roots still run deep with voters in the state.

Kirkwood: Kentucky voters are pragmatic.

Drake: Kentucky residents are sick and tired of being sick and tired. At some point, we have to stand up and say enough. This is one of those moments.

Wiest: I don’t know that you can read a lot into just a win, or even a win where the vote is very close. Incumbency and name recognition go a long way, and in Kentucky, the Beshear name has high name recognition, even in odd year election cycles. I think you can read more into it if, say, Andy wins by 10% or more.

Wheeler: That large fundraising advantages can affect turnout.

Blankenship: However conservative Kentuckians might be on national issues, when it comes to state politics, we’re still focused on the realities of our daily lives and communities — bread and butter, not fire and brimstone.

Cooperrider: That if you have two candidates with mostly moderate messaging that doesn’t get people to turn out, and the incumbent regardless of party will win. Trump wins big in Kentucky, yet many would say he is the opposite of moderate and non-controversial in his messaging. If Democrats or Republicans want to win big races in Kentucky against an incumbent, then they better roll out an exciting candidate who is messaging completely different than how a typical politician does.