Heavy rain soaks parts of the Prairies, risk of 100 mm by Wednesday

Forecast Centre
·3 min read

A 123-year-old, daily May rainfall record belonging to Medicine Hat, Alta., is in jeopardy of falling this week as the city faces an inundation of precipitation.

In fact, almost a month's worth of rainfall is expected to fall across parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan early this week. The amounts will exceed the average May rainfall totals the areas receive in just three days. Some areas could see 50-100 mm by the time it wraps up Wednesday, so there will be a risk of localized flooding.

YOUR MAY OUTLOOK: Spring into summer or a stalling spring ahead, Canada?

In Medicine Hat, rainfall totals are likely to hit 40-50 mm on Tuesday, potentially enough to exceed its largest, single-day rainfall event for the month of May (40.1 mm in 1901). If broken, it would be the rainiest May day for the community in 123 years.

Winds between 50-70 km/h threaten parts of the region, although they won't be as widespread of a risk. Regardless, residents are urged to plan ahead, and keep devices charged in case of some localized outages.

Heaviest rain arrives Tuesday, lingers into Wednesday

It’s going to be a formidable low-pressure system for this time of year. Its minimum central pressure is expected to drop near 980 millibars, which could set records in this region during the month of May.

Record low pressures for May
Record low pressures for May

Rainy conditions will continue Tuesday, but will increase in intensity during the day. Heavy downpours at times are forecast in eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan.

In fact, Tuesday’s rain could be record-breaking in Medicine Hat, Alta.

The Alberta community's rainfall totals are likely to hit 40-50 mm, potentially enough to exceed its largest, single-day rainfall event for the month of May (40.1 mm in 1901). If it is broken, it would be the rainiest May day for the community in 123 years.

Medicine Hat top rainiest day on record in May
Medicine Hat top rainiest day on record in May

Fortunately for farmers, the heaviest rain will fall over the western grasslands, likely avoiding a tough situation as we approach planting season east of Regina.

Persistent heavy rainfall could lead to flooding issues in vulnerable areas. Remember, never try to drive across a flooded roadway. It’s impossible to tell how deep the water is until it’s too late.

Wind gusts of 50-70 km/h are anticipated to accompany the heavy rainfall at times on Tuesday in Alberta and parts of southwestern Saskatchewan. The combination of gusty winds and rain-soaked soil could lead to isolated power outages.

May total rainfall averages on the Prairies
May total rainfall averages on the Prairies

SEE ALSO: May is here, along with all its Canadian weather extremes

Rain continues on into Wednesday but will ease in the morning.

All told, widespread rainfall totals 30-50 mm are in the forecast for much of the southern half of the Prairies. Locally higher totals of 50-100 mm are possible in southeastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan.

The amounts will exceed the average May rainfall totals these areas receive in just three days.

Baron_Prairies rainfall map through Wednesday_May 6
Baron_Prairies rainfall map through Wednesday_May 6

"Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible," says Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) in the rainfall warning issued for parts of Alberta. "Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts."

Stay with The Weather Network for your latest forecast across the Prairies.

WATCH: What makes a flood, and what can we do about it?

Click here to view the video

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