If Democrats decide to replace President Joe Biden as nominee, how would it happen?
What if Joe Biden decides he doesn’t want to be the Democratic presidential nominee?
It probably won’t be as chaotic as it seems, thanks to a process that the party’s national convention, which starts August 19, would follow.
There’s also some political momentum growing for Vice President Kamala Harris. “I think if Biden doesn’t run, the party would unify around Harris. She’s the anointed successor,” said Darrell West, a political analyst at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution.
Despite his widely criticized performance in the June 27 debate against former President Donald Trump, Biden has repeatedly insisted he’s running.
While the path to picking a replacement candidate can get complicated, there are steps in place. Here’s a quick guide:
Q. If Biden declines to run in the next few weeks, what happens next?
A. If that happened, some Democrats are floating the idea of what they call a “mini-primary.” Details of precisely what would mean are unclear, and chances are voters would not be able to cast ballots. One idea is that potential candidates would participate in forums prior to the convention.
Q. How would a new nominee be chosen?
A. It’s up to the 3,939 pledged delegates to the Democratic convention. California has 424 delegates, according to Associated Press.
Delegates were allocated earlier this year by states according to voting or through other processes such as caucuses. The convention is scheduled to run from August 19 to 22 in Chicago.
It takes a majority of delegates to win the nomination. Virtually all the delegates are pledged to Biden. If he chooses not to run, they are free to vote for another candidate.
Q. If Biden stays in the race, could enough delegates reject him and choose someone else?
A. Yes. Democratic party rules say delegates are pledged to a delegate, not bound.. “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,” says p. 21 of the party’s convention rule book.
But most of the delegates were carefully chosen by the Biden campaign and are considered unlikely to defect if he remains in the race.
Q. What are the chances of a convention that becomes deadlocked and goes on and on?
A. If no one has a majority after the first ballot, or roll call of the states and territories, there would be a second ballot. Party officials, called automatic delegates, would be given a bigger role once the process went beyond the first ballot.
The officials, who used to be called “superdelegates,” include members of Congress, governors and other top Democrats. There are 739 such delegates, including 70 from California.
The last time a national convention failed to pick a nominee on the first ballot was 1952. Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson had not entered the race before the convention, but emerged as a compromise choice once the frontrunners couldn’t get a majority.
Q. Who would be the favorite if Biden doesn’t run?
A. Harris would be a strong favorite to win a majority of delegates on the first ballot. No prominent Democratic figure has suggested they would challenger her in that case.
Monday, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said “no” when asked if she’d run if Biden stepped down. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has said repeatedly he does not intend to run this year.
Q. Would a messy nomination fight hurt the Democrats?
A. Chris Jackson, senior vice president at Ipsos Public Affairs, which conducts national polls, noted that the nominee is likely to instantly win support of hardcore Democratic voters.
If that bloc is 40% of the electorate, he explained, it wouldn’t take much more to win the general election. Democrats are unlikely to jeopardize their chances with a messy convention.
Q. Would Harris do better than Biden?
A. Maybe. A survey taken Sunday and Monday by Emerson College Polling showed Trump leading Harris among registered voters, 49% to 43%. He led Biden 44% to 40%..
