Drenching rain, severe storms to swing through Florida during 1st weekend of February
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A storm packing heavy rain and severe weather will target the south-central United States into this weekend, and part of that storm will extend across Florida on Sunday, AccuWeather meteorologists advise.
The winter months tend to be a dry time of the year for the Sunshine State, as much of Florida's rain comes from pop-up thunderstorms or tropical activity from late spring through autumn. However, on occasion, non-tropical storms come along during the wintertime with drenching rain and periodic severe weather. Conditions later this weekend may represent that.
The best bet for outdoor plans this weekend will be through Saturday evening as an area of high pressure over the Southeastern states drifts eastward, promoting dry conditions. Temperatures will generally be within a few degrees of the historical average during this time.
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For example, in Orlando, highs are in the low 70s, and nighttime lows are in the low 50s. Farther south, in Miami, highs are typically in the mid-70s with overnight lows in the low 60s. Temperatures may run a few degrees shy of these levels in South Florida.
The storm and its likelihood to bring a period or two of drenching rain and possibly severe thunderstorms to Florida will affect areas from Texas and the southern Plains to the central Gulf Coast from Friday night to Saturday night. Enough rain from that storm may fall to lead to flooding
While an earth-shattering amount of rain is not expected in Florida, much of the rain from the upcoming system may fall in a few hours and lead to urban and low-lying flooding
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The timing of the rain and thunderstorms in Florida will generally be from late Saturday night to Sunday afternoon. The greatest chance of thunderstorms turning violent will be over the southern half of the Florida Peninsula, where some locations could be hit with high winds. AccuWeather meteorologists are closely monitoring the situation for possible tornadoes and waterspouts, but the potential for a widespread severe weather outbreak is low at this time.
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Plans for a day at the beach or the Orlando theme parks on Sunday or even a round of golf in the morning might be in jeopardy. The rain and storms expected on Sunday may be significant enough to lead to airline delays.
"It is possible that a punch of dry air not only ends the severe weather threat rather abruptly on Sunday afternoon, but the sun may come out where the latter part of the day is salvaged in parts of the peninsula," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said. However, clouds, showers and spotty thunderstorms may persist over the panhandle and the northeastern counties of the state into Sunday evening.
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Since Nov. 1, much of Florida has been much wetter than average. As of Feb. 3. Tampa has received 9.56 inches of rain compared to the historical average of 6.61 inches or 145% of the historical average. In Miami, the rainfall jumps to 14.10 inches or 180% of the historical average. And, in Melbourne, Florida, 15.77 inches of rain fell for nearly 210% of average.
The upcoming storm will bring a general 0.50 of an inch to 1 inch of rain. However, some locations may pick up 2-3 inches of rain where thunderstorms persist for a few hours.
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Showers will pivot southward across the state on Monday, followed by a stretch of dry weather throughout much of next week.
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