‘The Fall Guy’ Will Open Over $50 Million, Unless It Grosses Less Than $30 Million

Tom Brueggemann
·4 min read

“The Fall Guy” (Universal) opens in the U.S./Canada Friday — one of the most prestigious spots on the movie release calendar. Since “Iron Man” in 2008, and since Disney initiated the Marvel Cinematic Universe in 2012, the first weekend in May (or sometimes, the last in April) has marked the start of the summer movie season.

When MCU “Deadpool & Wolverine” left this date in favor of July 26, Universal grabbed it — and the expectations that come with it. As a result, there’s an unusually wide range of estimates for the domestic opening weekend: We hear everything from the high 20s to over $50 million, with consensus closer to $35 million or a bit more.

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An opening weekend of $35 million-$40 million would be a big improvement over a disastrous April (where “Civil War” was the sole film to debut over $25 million), but that would be only the fifth-best opening of 2024. Historically, this date tops any opening gross and usually winds up being the best for the year.

For Universal, it helps that “The Fall Guy” cost $125 million — considerably less than other summer-opening juggernauts. That’s cold comfort for theaters; they would very much appreciate the return of a film that grosses over $350 million domestic, as Marvel had done every year since 2015 (COVID years excepted).

The hallowed date is one reason why experts find themselves in the unusual position of being uncertain how a film like “The Fall Guy” will open. The first weekend in May isn’t tied to a holiday and most schools are still in session; historically speaking, its performance is tied to Marvel franchise titles.

Perhaps after the horrendous April ($100 million total, with no opening over $40 million), and capitalizing on the promise of “Godzilla x Kong” ($80 million opening), moviegoers will be hungry for a new and exciting film. Then again, maybe April’s weakness reflect bigger problems that will continue to burden theaters.

A key question: Post-“Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” can non-franchise original films perform well? It appears to be a receding hope: In the seven-plus months since their release, only two — “Five Nights at Freddy’s” and “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” — grossed more than $100 million. Even the Christmas sleeper rom-com hit “Anyone but You” fell short of that number. (Granted, “The Fall Guy” is very loosely based on the ’80s ABC TV show, but in the current marketplace the IP for a 40-year-old action series may as well be brand new.)

Whatever “The Fall Guy” grosses, it has the assist of good advance reviews (76 Metacritic score, high for a big-budget studio release), a splashy SXSW premiere and the memeification of Ryan Gosling as Beavis on “SNL.” Plus, director David Leitch is a proven hitmaker: “Deadpool 2” and “Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw” each grossed over $700 million worldwide.

Could Gosling guarantee success? Sure, why not. It’s his first film since the massive “Barbie,” for which he received universal acclaim and was considered a key part of its success. His performance at the Oscars elevated him more. His hosting of “Saturday Night Live” gave the show its highest ratings this season.

Where it gets complicated: Gosling has never had a huge opening as the top-billed actor.

CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE., from left: Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, 2011. ph: Ben Glass/©Warner Brothers/Courtesy Everett Collection
‘Crazy, Stupid, Love’ ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection

Gosling has shied away from most franchises and sequels throughout his multi-decade career, establishing a reputation for romantic titles (“The Notebook,” “Crazy Stupid Love”), independent films (“Half Nelson,” “Blue Valentine”), and intelligent, sophisticated studio releases (“Drive,” “Blade Runner 2049”). It’s a terrific lineup by any definition, but none of the films were a huge hit.

Also informing the lower end of projections is original films are tricky to market. The action-comedy plot here — a veteran stunt actor steps in to save a production directed by his ex-girlfriend (Emily Blunt) when the lead actor goes missing — may be tough to convey. Will it draw action fans? Does it hit the sweet spot for Gosling fans? Is it too industry-insider with its making-of-a-movie plot?

It’s hard to think of comparable films. One that comes to mind is “True Lies,” the 1994 James Cameron film that accomplished the rare feat of an action-comedy hitting the equivalent of $1 billion worldwide. It had Arnold Schwarzenegger, an action star with comedy credentials, reuniting with Cameron, his director on “The Terminator.” That was a far easier transition than what Gosling faces here.

If audiences really like “The Fall Guy,” as Universal and theaters fervently hope, the opening could be the start of a long, successful run. Wherever this lands over the May 3 weekend, expect a lot of snap reactions.

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