Filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket? Here are The KC Star’s favorite upset picks
As March Madness begins, millions of less-than-perfect brackets will be filled out, including at least one from yours truly.
Kentucky’s loss to No. 15 seed St. Peter’s last year — followed by a miracle run from the Peacocks — was only the latest instance of how crazy March can get. Who could forget Michigan State’s stunning 2016 loss to Middle Tennessee or Mizzou and Duke both losing to No. 15 seeds in the first round of the 2012 bracket? Then there were stunners from Florida Gulf Coast (twice), UMBC and Loyola Chicago, the last of which made it all the way to the Final Four.
Point is, picking a perfect (or even competent) bracket requires a good bit of skill, but also some luck ... and usually some otherwise bad picks that just happen to swing the right way.
With that in mind, The Star’s sports staff came together to suggest our favorite upset picks for the 2023 NCAA Tournament field. As you’re filling out your bracket, keep an eye on these teams...
No. 12 seed VCU (27-7) over No. 5 St. Mary’s (26-7)
The reason: The Gaels may be the higher-seeded team in the West Regional, but they were shipped to Albany to face VCU. Two traditional reasons to pick VCU: the ol’ 5-12 upset special and teams from the West Coast often struggle when they travel east. The game tips off at 10:50 a.m. California time.
VCU has won nine straight games and can make it 10 on Friday but don’t expect it to be pretty. St. Mary’s allows the fifth-fewest points in the nation (60.1) and the Rams are 24th in opposing scoring defense (63.0). — Pete Grathoff
Betting line: St. Mary’s -4
No. 13 seed Kent State (28-6) over No. 4 Indiana (22-11)
The reason: The Golden Flashes have proved they can play with some of the nation’s best in close losses at Houston (49-44) and Gonzaga (73-66). And they have an excellent player in Sincere Carry (17.6 points, 4.9 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.7 steals per game). — Blair Kerkhoff
Betting line: IU -4
No. 8 seed Memphis (26-8) vs. No. 9 FAU (31-3) ... then No. 1 Purdue (29-5)
The reason: The Tigers are hot when it matters. They have a tough first-round draw, but if they get Purdue in the second round, they’ll have more talent on the floor. And Purdue’s weaknesses (turnover rate, three-point shooting) make it the top seed most susceptible to an early exit. — Sam McDowell
Betting line (first round): Memphis -2
No. 12 seed Charleston (31-3) over No. 5 San Diego State (27-6)
The reason: The 12-5 seeding upset remains one of the most reliable in the NCAA Tournament: It’s happened at least once in 33 of the 37 tournaments since the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1985 and multiple times in six of the last 10 tournaments. So we’ll roll the dice on 12th-seeded College of Charleston, 31-3 and winner of 10 straight, beating San Diego State in the first of those matchups on Thursday. — Vahe Gregorian
Betting line: San Diego State -5
No. 12 seed Drake (27-7) over No 5. Miami (25-7)
The reason: I like Drake the best because they have a good coach (Darian DeVries), veteran guards — super-seniors Roman Penn and Garrett Sturtz average a combined 22.1 PPG, plus sophomore Tucker DeVries is averaging 19.0 points and 5.6 rebounds — and Miami could be without one of its starters. — Kellis Robinett
Betting line: Miami -2.5
No. 13 seed Furman (27-7) over No. 5 Virginia (25-7)
Bob Richey’s X’s and O’s have turned Furman into one of the most potent offenses in the country, as the Paladins average 81.8 points per game and rank No. 1 in the country in two-point percentage. The Paladins have everything you would want in a Cinderella: a cool nickname, a cool narrative (Furman hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament since 1980) and cool players. Mike Bothwell, 18.0 PPG, and Jalen Slawson, 15.7 PPG and 7.1 RPG, could be stars by the end of the weekend. — Taylor Eldridge
Betting line: Virginia -5.5
No. 3 seed Gonzaga (28-5) to make the Final Four ... and cut down some more nets
The reason: This Gonzaga team is not one of the favorites this year — as a 3 seed instead of a 1. The Zags have been there before, yes, but there’s less pressure this year. The squad matches up well against UCLA and could meet KU in a thriller in the Elite Eight. It might be Gonzaga’s year, folks. — Gary Bedore
Odds: Gonzaga +425 (fourth-best) to win the West, +1700 (tied-seventh) to win the tournament
No. 10 seed Penn State (22-13) over No. 7 Texas A&M (25-9)
The reason: Give me Penn State over Texas A&M. Penn State comes in very hot, winning eight of 10 and nearly beating Purdue in the Big Ten championship game. Not to mention they are one of the best three-point-shooting teams in the nation and don’t turn the ball over much — two huge things in March. — Shreyas Laddha
Betting line: Texas A&M -3.5
No. 12 seed Oral Roberts (30-4) to the Sweet 16
The reason: Incredibly, no one on The Star overlapped with their favorite upset pick, including all four 12 seeds being chosen.
Candidly, I actually dislike Oral Roberts’ draw with No. 5 seed Duke (26-8) in the first round, because Duke has been trending up, winning the ACC Tournament. But the Golden Eagles, who were crushed by Houston in a wake-up call early in the season, enter having won 17 straight, and the roster looks Sweet 16 caliber to me.
Indeed, if Oral Roberts can survive Duke (the biggest question to me), I like the Golden Eagles against either a banged-up Tennessee or Louisiana. The Golden Eagles have excellent guard play between college hoops star Max Abmas and former Jayhawk (for a brief time) Issac McBride, who shoots 41% from three. The man in the middle is 7-5 (yes, 7-5) center Connor Vannover, who is riding two double-doubles and 11 blocks in his last two games. — Scott Chasen
Betting line: Duke -6.5
