No, Trump didn’t score anything like an Iowa caucus blowout. Look at the numbers | Opinion
Approximately 550 people filled the Pella High School Gymnasium in conservative Pella, Iowa, Monday night to caucus for their preferred Republican candidate. It was a friendly crowd, and the host was amiable and held those speaking in support of their candidates to their allotted three minutes.
The gathering reminded me of attendance at a blow-out high school basketball game without any teenagers and not much to cheer about. Sure, there was good conversation, and it was nice to talk with friends I hadn’t seen in a while, but this Republican caucus was the most subdued I’ve seen in the years I’ve been covering them — with little of the raucous cheering, fun and even rage I’ve seen here before at caucus events.
Sure, a couple of Republican “rock stars” were in attendance, Casey DeSantis and Kari Lake, and they were greeted like royalty. I even snapped a photo of a friend who is an Iowa Republican legislator with Casey and texted it to her. My friend and I disagree on policy, but I know a historic moment when I see it, and I was happy to help her out.
Kari Lake has been here before, and Monday night she looked a little burned out. I can’t blame her. She has been working hard. Casey DeSantis, however, wasn’t burned out. Instead, she was a bright, shining flame — and I think the wrong DeSantis is running for president.
Other than that, the most excitement I saw was when the pastor who was supposed to share the opening prayer was a no-show, and other clergy in the audience scrambled to try to be the first to get to the gym floor so they could lead the prayer. Put me in, coach!
Headlines across the globe Monday night reported on Donald Trump’s so-called “historic” victory, where he won 51% of the vote of Iowa Republican voters who braved the subzero weather to caucus. It was nice to see the media paint us Iowans as rugged “ice warriors” of a sort (my Viking ancestors would be proud) — but, hey, it’s winter. Roads were passable, and after a half-hour drive, it took me maybe 45 seconds to get from my truck in the parking lot to the gym — not exactly an arctic trek.
It wasn’t a historic victory for Trump. The narrative is wrong. Much of the media is treating this like a normal caucus year, when it’s not. Trump is essentially running as an incumbent, and 49% of Iowan Republican caucus-goers said they want someone else.
The bloom is off the rose. It was even worse for Trump in conservative Pella. In the four precincts there, Trump received only 43%, 45%, 38% and 34% of the vote. This means that 57%, 55%, 62% and 66% of conservative Pella Republicans wanted someone else but Trump. In rural Pella, Ron DeSantis beat Trump outright 32.2% to 31.8%.
Imagine if President Joe Biden as an incumbent held similar numbers in the caucuses, where 49% of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers wanted someone else? It would be reported as a clear defeat for Biden, and the party would likely be looking to coalesce around a different candidate, as has happened historically. You can’t have it both ways.
I knew when I walked into the Pella High School gym that many of my friends had soured on Trump. They’ve told me so. A glance at the bleachers said the same thing: In a Trump cosplay world, there was little MAGA gear in sight.
Robert Leonard is an anthropologist in Knoxville/Pella, Iowa. This is a follow-up to his preview of the caucuses from last week . He writes the newsletter Deep Midwest: Politics and Culture at rleonard.substack.com
