How can Penn State vs UMass prepare the Nittany Lions for Ohio State? 3 game predictions

Penn State will play at home Saturday in their sixth game of the year. The Nittany Lions will take on the UMass Minutemen in Beaver Stadium in their last non-conference game of the 2023 season. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Wildcats.

Learn how the offense has evolved

I think the biggest thing we’ll find out this week is how much the Nittany Lions learned about themselves during the bye week. There are plenty of questions left for an offense that has yet to hit his stride through five games.

Why isn’t the rushing attack explosive this season? The running game is slow and methodical — a far cry from what it looked like last year when Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen were routinely breaking off big gains. The offensive line has done its job and has played at a relatively high level running game, leaving other issues as the reason for the lack of explosion. Some of that falls at the feet of Allen and Singleton, but some is the fault of factors outside of their control. Teams are playing the Nittany Lions as if they’re a run heavy team because they have so much talent in the backfield and that is making it more difficult for those players to make plays. This is going to be an opportunity for them to get back on track and uncover what was at fault early on. Now, part of that will also be because of the talent disparity between both teams, but those underlying adjustments should still be visible for the rushing attack.

That isn’t where things end for the offensive questions. Will any other receivers step up? KeAndre Lambert-Smith has been consistent as the team’s top option, and the potential return of Harrison Wallace III — more on that in a bit — should give sophomore quarterback Drew Allar a second trustworthy option. But this is the last opportunity for a No. 3 receiver to step up before the Nittany Lions play Ohio State. I still believe Dante Cephas is primed to have a big role by season’s end and I think this could be the game where he breaks out with a few impressive plays.

Passing game opens up

The hot button issue of the week — I’d be surprised if we don’t see some major explosive plays from Penn State’s passing game. There are a couple of reasons that should happen. First and foremost, both James Franklin and offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich have mentioned the lack of big plays as an issue this season. UMass is on a much lower level from a talent standpoint and should be susceptible to big gains. In fact, the defense is arguably the worst in the country. That should mean Lambert-Smith and Wallace — if he plays — will feast.

Wallace is another key aspect here. He has a chance to return — Franklin said he would have against Northwestern but he was stepped on and it re-aggravated his injury — and that is going to do wonders for Penn State. Wallace and Lambert-Smith are the clear top two receivers on the team and not having the former has forced every other wide out to increase their role. Now that he’s potentially back, he will be the reliable presence the team needs, allowing Lambert-Smith to be more of a big play threat than he was over the last few weeks. Having trustworthy receivers is important in any offense and right now those two are clearly the only ones the team has complete faith in as starters.

Franklin has been asked frequently about the big plays in the passing game and this is going to be the team’s last opportunity to make that happen and give Allar the confidence to make those throws next week when the team takes on Ohio State.

Stars get rest

This could be the most important thing for Penn State given what lies ahead. For all of the questions to answer and all of the issues to resolve, there is no more important aspect of this game than the Nittany Lions heading home healthy. Yes, winning is more important, but — spoiler alert — they’re going to win.

Players like Allar, left tackle Olu Fashanu, defensive end Chop Robinson and cornerbacks Johnny Dixon and Kalen King should see limited snap counts this weekend. The list does not end there — those are a small portion of the number of Nittany Lions who do not need to play extensively.

Their health is not necessarily in question but keeping them all out there for more limited snap counts should limit the possibility that they’re at full go against Ohio State. The added bonus is that more players down the depth chart — Drew Shelton at left tackle, Zuriah Fisher and Amin Vanover at defensive end, Cam Miller at cornerback, among others — will get more playing time. Those players may not be front of mind for fans, but each one of them could have a chance to make an impact in the team’s biggest games of the season. Getting them ready in the final week before an enormous matchup could do wonders for their confidence and allow them to play at a high level in Columbus.

Final predictions

Penn State 63, UMass 7: I don’t see a world where this game is close beyond the first 10 minutes of the game — if it lasts that long. The Nittany Lions are far superior at every spot and it doesn’t help that the Minutemen have arguably the worst defense in college football. Allar and the offense should be able to light the team up early and often and give the backups the entire second half — if not more.

MVP: Beau Pribula. I think Pribula has a legitimate chance to play in the second quarter. I would not be surprised if the Nittany Lions light up this defense for 42+ in the first half and that should lead to the backups playing early. Pribula will still get to throw the ball because he’s coming in so early and that will allow him to throw for 150+ yards, run for 75+ yards and score a touchdown through the air and on the ground.

The last word

Penn State head coach James Franklin on the potential return of a key player:

“Being able to have Trey back and KeAndre on the field while those other guys are developing those roles and those opportunities and that confidence I think will be helpful. But I think getting Trey back is a huge piece of that puzzle. I think it helps KeAndre. I think it helps Drew. I think it helps our team. I think it helps our offense. I think it helps Coach Yurcich in calling the game. But I think that will really help us having those two guys both on the field at the same time.”