Poll: Craft closing in on Cameron, Quarles rising in KY GOP governor field
A new poll released by Emerson College and Fox 56 shows Kelly Craft gaining on current frontrunner for the GOP gubernatorial nomination Daniel Cameron, just six points behind him trailing 30% to 24%.
GOP Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles has also made gains, separating himself from the rest of the pack in third place at 15%. Unlike Cameron and Craft, Quarles has yet to spend any money on advertising.
The results came from a survey of 900 Republicans deemed “very likely” voters. Attorney General Cameron received just over 30% of the vote to former ambassador Craft posting just under 24%. Quarles logged 14.9%.
20.7% of those polled are still undecided about who they will support in the race.
Coming in fourth place in the poll was Northern Kentucky firebrand and media personality Eric Deters, who got 6% of the vote.
The numbers have changed significantly from the last publicly available poll. Cameron has dropped since that poll, while Craft, Quarles and Deters rose.
Cameron had 39% of the vote in a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey conducted in late January. At that time, Craft and Quarles posted 13% and 8%, respectively. Deters rose from 2%, while Auditor Harmon dropped from 5% and Somerset Mayor Alan Keck last posted 2% support.
Keck’s 0.6% posting in the Emerson College poll is hovering around that of candidates who have raised very little compared to the rest of the field, like Robbie Smith and David Cooper.
The margin of error for the poll is 3.2%. It was conducted April 10-11.
The group did not poll a general election audience, and unlike the previous survey from Mason-Dixon it did not pit the candidates against Beshear in a hypothetical matchup. That January poll saw Beshear with major leads over all top GOP contenders.
Data website fivethirtyeight.com gives Emerson College high marks in its pollster ratings, giving the group an “A-” over 256 races analyzed.
A heated race
The poll showed a unique trend among GOP voters: women were more likely to support Cameron (29%) over Craft (19%), the only woman in the race, and almost as likely to support Quarles (18%) as Craft. Meanwhile, men were almost equal in their support of the two leading candidates, supporting Cameron at a rate of 31% and Craft at 29%.
Across age groups, Cameron’s support stays near a steady 30%. Craft, on the other hand, has much stronger support among older voters, and Quarles is strongest with younger voters.
The poll found that 63% of the very likely Republican voters had a favorable view of Cameron while 16% had an unfavorable view of the attorney general. Craft logged 47% favorability and 21% unfavorability. Quarles had a 39% to 15% favorability rating.
Of those three, voters knew the least about Quarles. 46% said they were unsure how they felt about him or had never heard of him, compared to 33% and 22% figures for Craft and Cameron.
The results showing Cameron’s lead slipping and Craft and Quarles rising comes after months of Craft and a political action committee (PAC) that supports her airing ads critical of Cameron. The attorney general has been attacked on television and in direct mail for past decisions related to coal, lawsuits, crime and more.
In all, the Craft campaign and the pro-Craft PAC have spent nearly $4.5 million on advertisements thus far. Cameron and a PAC that supports him have cleared $1.1 million, only recently starting its ad war by defending his conservative values.
Deters is the only other candidate spending on media buys as of now, having dropped more than $100,000 on cable television ads. Quarles has yet to spend money on advertising.
“Tonight’s poll is even more evidence that we are in a great position to win the GOP nomination,” Quarles tweeted in response to the poll. “Without a single dime spent on media, our strong grassroots support, 120 county approach, and 235+ endorsements show our own conservative brand is working.”
Other issues
The poll also took the temperature of Kentucky Republican voters on a wide-ranging number of topics including former president Donald Trump, guns, transgender care and more.
The recent indictment of Trump in New York has caused a stir among national Republicans and, at least per the poll, has galvanized his support among Kentucky Republicans. 46% of those polled said that the indictment made them more likely to support Trump in the 2024 GOP presidential primary while only 6% said it made them less likely to vote for Trump — the remainder said it made no difference. Trump led a hypothetical 2024 GOP presidential primary matchup tested in the poll with 61.5% support to potential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 22.6%.
The pollster also asked the 900 respondents how important they find restricting “sex reassignment surgery, also known as gender affirmation surgery” for minors in Kentucky. 66% said it was “very important,” compared to 5.4% “somewhat important,” 17.9% “very unimportant,” and the remainder who found it only somewhat important, were unsure or had no opinion.
The issue came to the fore during this year’s legislative session via Senate Bill 150, which initially codified a teachers’ right to not use transgender students’ pronouns but later added several provisions to become an omnibus bill dealing with LGBTQ issues – banning transgender students from using the restroom that corresponds with their gender identity, banning gender-affirming surgery and puberty blockers, and banning any instruction on sexual orientation or gender identity in schools.
A majority — though not overwhelming — of Republicans polled opposed legalizing recreational marijuana at 50.2%. 33.8% supported making it legal in Kentucky while 16.1% were undecided. The poll found that younger Republicans were much more likely to support legalizing recreational marijuana than older voters.
On gun laws, 70.6% of respondents said that Kentucky’s gun laws were “just right.” 17.9% said they were “too strict” while 11.5% believe they’re “too lenient.”
