Why Mecklenburg Republicans see chance for Trump to win Charlotte votes in 2024

With the right strategy, former President Donald Trump could make inroads with Charlotte-area voters at the Republican National Convention, local delegates and political strategists say.

The GOP will gather in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, next week to officially nominate Trump as he looks to unseat Democratic incumbent Joe Biden, if Biden stays in the race. The party released its official platform Monday, and it includes no call for a nationwide abortion ban for the first time in 40 years. Other planks include calls to “seal the border,” end inflation and cut taxes.

Both campaigns are vying to win over voters in the swing state’s most populous metropolitan area, where Republicans say they want to see a focus on issues including the economy, public safety and national security.

And they see a window after Biden’s debate performance that raised questions about his viability as a candidate.

“Republicans need to be strategic with appealing to voters on common sense solutions,” said delegate Sarah Reidy-Jones.

The convention is an opportunity for Trump’s campaign to “set the agenda for the voters,” said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University.

“If the Republicans are successful, they will set an agenda based on issues where people trust them and trust them more than the Democratic Party and the Democratic candidates,” he said.

Local Republican strategist Larry Shaheen summed up his view of the convention in five words: “It’s Project Don’t Look Crazy.”

Mecklenburg Republicans: Trump can gain ground here

Reidy-Jones, who chaired the Mecklenburg GOP from 2021 to 2023, noted voters in and around Charlotte are “no stranger to being courted during presidential years.” Mecklenburg County reliably votes blue, but its large population means it’s also one of the state’s largest sources of Republican votes. And many of its more suburban areas and surrounding counties have more GOP-friendly electorates.

Biden won Mecklenburg by a margin of 66.7% to 31.6% in 2020, and Hillary Clinton beat Trump in the county with 62.3% of the vote in 2016. But wins in counties such as Cabarrus, Iredell and Union helped propel Trump to statewide victories in both elections.

Reidy-Jones is hoping her party will use the convention to share its approach to inflation, border security, public safety and school choice: issues she believes will appeal to undecided voters in her community. The Republican platform calls for mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, a new missile defense system and for schools to lose federal funding if they teach “Critical Race Theory, radical gender ideology, and other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content.”

“As the target demographic of a suburban soccer mom, I’ve personally felt the pressures of these issues. I worry about putting food on my table, feeling safe in my own neighborhood and have witnessed first-hand a failing school system,” she said. “My husband and I are having the same conversations as others here: are we better off than we were four years ago? And it’s a no. Voters want to feel like relief is coming.”

Delegate Rion Choate, a longtime Trump supporter from Charlotte, says the former president can connect with Mecklenburg voters by talking about taxes, voter ID laws and national security issues in Ukraine, North Korea and China.

The 2024 Republican platform calls for “large tax cuts for workers” and voter ID requirements.

Trump became the first sitting president to visit North Korea in 2019. He’s repeatedly said on the campaign trail he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine.

“We need to get back to America first,” Choate said.

The 2024 Republican platform could be a launching pad for connecting with voters in the Charlotte area “that have been alienated” by Trump but aren’t fully committed to the Democratic ticket, Larry Shaheen said.

“This platform is designed to appeal to the moderate folks in the suburbs,” he said.

Can platform change on abortion help Trump?

The change in language on abortion in the platform, which the Associated Press reported was driven by Trump, is an example of the party trying to market itself to “those voters who we may have lost,” Shaheen said. North Carolina Democrats have spotlighted abortion as a campaign issue after that proved to be a winning strategy for the party in other states since Roe v. Wad was overturned.

“There are a lot of Republicans like me who are actually relieved to see him take that issue potentially off the table,” he said.

Cooper said the abortion change is a sign Trump’s campaign doesn’t feel the issue is “electorally advantageous” for Republicans.

“Could that make a difference in a state like North Carolina? Sure,” he said of the change. “If the state is as close as we expect it to be, or at least as close as it’s been in the last few cycles, then not leaning into abortion I think is a very smart strategy for the Republican Party and for Donald Trump in particular.”

Reidy-Jones said she thinks the pivot on abortion reflects the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which “placed this issue back into the states’ hands.”

“We need to be focused on showing what strengths we would have with a Trump presidency over a Biden presidency,” she said of abortion as a campaign issue. “Including stronger national security, safer streets, and a stop to inflation that is affecting every household.”

How much do conventions matter?

As conventions have become more choreographed coronations rather than floor fights over who should be a party’s nominee, they’ve also become “less important” in swaying voters, Cooper noted. Still, he added, they present “essentially a free advertisement for the political party.”

“You’re not going to persuade a whole lot of people, but you could set the agenda for the media,” he said. “You can set the agenda for the voters.”

He predicted Republicans will likely see the typical “small bounce” in polling after their convention.

“The reason I call it a bounce instead of a bump is that bounces come back down, and that’s what we tend to see now with conventions,” he said.

Shaheen said recent turmoil on the Democratic side, where Biden has been plagued with questions about his age and health, presents Republicans with an opportunity to make more of a splash with their convention than normal.

Republicans would be wise to present a “counter image” to “the Democrats who are disastrously in disarray,” he said.

“If the Republicans stay on message — one that’s going to try to appeal to suburban voters and voters in urban centers — they have an opportunity to vault ahead and potentially build up a lead,” he said.