Civil War might be an entertaining movie, but do Americans think one is actually coming?

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Despite incredible political polarization in America right now, few Americans believe that a second civil war is happening any time soon.

That’s according to the findings from a report published by UC Davis researcher Garen Wintemute of the Violence Prevention Research Program.

The report, which comes out just in time to coincide with the release of the film Civil War (about a hypothetical second civil war happening), found that just 5.7% of Americans surveyed agreed that a civil war will happen “in the next few years,” and even fewer (3.8%) said that such a war is needed “to set things right.”

However, of those who agreed there will be a civil war in the next few years, more than a third (38.4%) agreed that such a war was needed.

The expectation of, a perceived need for, a second civil war were higher among “specific subsets of respondents,” according to a summary of the report. That included “Republicans, MAGA Republicans, extreme conservatives, persons endorsing racist beliefs or statements of the potential need for violence to effect social change, and persons who strongly approved of specified extreme right-wing political organizations and movements.”

The report found that expectations of civil war have become less common, decreasing from 13.7% in 2022 to 5.7% in 2023.

“These are hopeful findings, reinforced by the fact that in both years, large majorities of respondents reported that political violence was never justified,” according to the report summary.

However, the report noted that 2023 was not an election year, and 2024 is.

“In 2024, a presidential election year characterized by increasing political animosity and by violent rhetoric from some leading political figures, expectations of and support for civil war may well increase,” the report summary read.


Sacramento County Superior Court Judge Jennifer K. Rockwell last week gave the green light for a ballot measure aimed at the AIDS Healthcare Foundation to go on the November ballot.

Proponents of the Protect Patients Now measure, as it is known, have successfully collected the required amount of signatures and submitted them for certification, according to the judge’s April 8 ruling.

If it goes to voters and is approved, it would require “worst offender” health care nonprofits — namely, the AHF — to spend 98% of their revenue on direct patient care and would bar them from overcharging the government for prescription drugs.

The AHF unsuccessfully sued to block the measure from proceeding.

“Michael Weinstein and AHF have tried three times to take this taxpayer accountability measure off the ballot, and each time a court has ruled against them. Californians should ask themselves: Why is this pharmaceutical organization fighting so hard against a proposal that would simply ensure that public health dollars meant to help patients actually get spent that way?” said measure spokesman Nathan Click, in a statement.

The measure is being promoted by the California Apartment Association, a landlord lobbyist group.

The AHF did not respond to The Bee’s request for comment by deadline.


“This resolution challenges all of us to rise up against hatred and take a stand to protect LGBTQ+ students. From book bans to discriminatory attacks by state legislators, LGBTQ+ students are constantly told they are not allowed to be who they are. We must fight for their freedom to exist, to take up space, and to be unapologetically themselves.”

- Sen. Laphonza Butler, D-California, in a statement announcing her support for a resolution condemning attacks on LGBTQ students.

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