France’s Le Pen Would Win First-Round President Vote, Poll Shows

(Bloomberg) -- Marine Le Pen would finish in front in the first round of the next French presidential election in 2027, even though her far-right National Rally fell to third place in Sunday’s legislative ballot, according to a poll carried out after voting had ended.

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Toluna-Harris Interactive looked at four scenarios pitting her against different candidates from the left and the center. They don’t include current President Emmanuel Macron, who can’t run for a third consecutive term.

In all cases, Le Pen would get 31% or 32% of the presidential vote in the first round, putting her in the runoff. The scenarios set her against Macron’s former centrist prime minister, Edouard Philippe, seen getting 22% to 24%, or current premier Gabriel Attal, set to garner 20% to 23%.

According to the survey of 2,496 adults, the far-left France Unbowed’s Jean-Luc Melenchon would come in third place on 15% to 17%. He would finish ahead of Socialist Olivier Faure or the center-left’s Raphael Glucksmann.

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Le Pen has twice missed out on the French presidency in contests against Macron — in 2017 and 2022 — and now has her sights set on 2027. Her party fell to third in Sunday’s legislative election after hundreds of candidates in the center and on the left pulled out of runoffs to boost each other’s chances of beating the far right. The Harris survey is a first look at whether she would be able to capitalize on that result and use it as a springboard.

The polling company carried out interviews online after polling stations closed on Sunday, as well as on Monday. The margin of error was 1 point to 2.3 points.

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