Is SC in path of even more hurricanes in 2024 after Beryl? Here’s what latest forecast shows

Patrick McCreless

July 10, 2024 at 9:56 a.m.·2 min read

The 2024 hurricane season may be more active for South Carolina and other states than previously thought, a new forecast shows.

Colorado State University researchers recently released an updated forecast that predicts a more active Atlantic hurricane season then what they previously reported. The hurricane season is expected now to have 25 named storms, up from the 23 the researchers predicted early in the year. The updated forecast comes after Hurricane Beryl tore through Texas, leaving millions of people without power earlier this week, according to the Associated Press.

“Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season,” the Colorado State University report reads. “This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

The Atlantic hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Hurricane prediction breakdown

Information collected through early July indicates that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity well above the 1991-2020 average, CSU states. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be far above the long-period average.

CSU estimates that in 2024 there will be 25 named storms (average is 14.4), 120 named storm days (average is 69.4), 12 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 50 hurricane days (average is 27, six major hurricanes (average is 3.2) and 16 major hurricane days (average is 7.4). These numbers include the three named storms that have appeared this season, Alberto, Beryl and Chris.

NOAA

The latest CSU forecast falls more in line with the hurricane season prediction the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration made earlier this year. The agency predicted there could be up to 25 named storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season — the most federal forecasters have ever predicted.

Probability of major hurricane landfall

57% — Entire continental U.S. coastline (full season average from 1880-2020 is 43%)
31% — U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula, south and east of Cedar Key (full season average from 1880-2020 is 21%)
38% — Gulf Coast from Florida Panhandle, west and north of Cedar Key (full season average from 1880-2020 is 27%)

Reasons for active hurricane season

Cool neutral ENSO or La Niña conditions are likely at the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Such conditions typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity through drops in vertical wind shear, CSU states.

And this year’s sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are far warmer than usual, which favors an active Atlantic hurricane season. Also, deep tropical hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean — like Beryl — is often associated with hyperactive seasons.

“Our confidence this year is higher than normal for a July forecast based on the strength and persistence of the current hurricane-favorable large-scale environmental conditions,” CSU states.

BBC
First images of Jasper after 100m high wildfire hit
The fierce wildfire in the Canadian town of Jasper melted cars to the road and turned homes to ash.
The Weather Network
Storm threat continues overnight for Winnipeg, northwest Ontario
Look out for a continuing risk for strong to severe thunderstorms through the overnight hours in southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario
BBC
'Monster' fires may have destroyed half of historic Canadian town
The blazes are still out of control as firefighters try to save as many buildings as possible.
The Canadian Press
Life and death in the heat. What it feels like when Earth's temperatures soar to record highs
BENI MELLAL, Morocco (AP) — In the unrelenting heat of Morocco’s Middle Atlas, people were sleeping on rooftops. Hanna Ouhbour needed refuge too, but she was outside a hospital waiting for her diabetic cousin who was in a room without air conditioning.
The Weather Network - Video
This typhoon could alter your weather to start August
Typhoon Gaemi is on track to move into the jetstream, impacting our weather here in Canada as we head into the first week of August.More details with Meteorologist Melinda Singh.
The Weather Network
Typhoon set to bring a warm start to August for parts of Canada
We could see above-seasonal temperatures to start August thanks to a typhoon in the western Pacific
Canadian Press Videos
Wood pellets boom in the U.S. raises health and environmental concerns
Wood pellet production skyrocketed across the U.S. South to feed the European Union’s recent push for renewable energy but residents near manufacturing plants -- often those in poor, rural swaths -- believe the process is making people sick. (AP video by Stephen Smith)
The Canadian Press
California's largest wildfire explodes in size as fires rage across US West
California's largest active fire exploded in size on Friday evening, growing rapidly amid bone-dry fuel and threatening thousands of homes as firefighters scrambled to meet the danger.
BBC
How decline of Indian vultures led to 500,000 human deaths
A new study links the vulture decline in India to deadly bacteria spread, causing about 500,000 deaths.
USA TODAY
National Hurricane Center tracking 'area of disturbed weather' in the central Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center is tracking an 'area of disturbed weather' in the central Atlantic but don't expect it to survive Saharan dust.
USA TODAY
'Nightmare': Wildfires burn one of most beautiful places in the world
Fires in the Canadian Rockies burned through the popular tourist town of Jasper and damaged parts of Jasper National Park.
The Canadian Press
Wood pellets production boomed to feed EU demand. It's come at a cost for Black people in the South
GLOSTER, Miss. (AP) — This southern Mississippi town's expansive wood pellet plant was so close to Shelia Mae Dobbins' home that she sometimes heard company loudspeakers. She says industrial residues coated her truck and she no longer enjoys spending time in the air outdoors.
WXII - Greensboro/Winston-Salem Videos
WATCH: Few storms, heavy rain risk Friday in Winston-Salem, Greensboro
Friday, July 26: Areas of dense fog and pockets of heavy rain are likely for the morning commute on Thursday. Temperatures may remain in the 80s with heavy clouds and waves of showers and storms during the afternoon. Heavy rain may develop from the Blue Ridge Parkway into Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Burlington through Friday night. The rain chances drop slightly Friday, but we still have a risk of heavy rain from any storm that does move overhead. Weekend: High humidity remains as a ridge of high pressure brings more sunshine and lower rain chances Saturday. Stray storms may develop in the mountains on Sunday, but most areas will be rain-free with hot July highs.
Reuters
California wildfire explodes, becomes largest in US
(Reuters) -Thousands of firefighters were battling a rapidly growing wildfire in northern California on Saturday after the blaze more than doubled in size in a 24-hour span. The Park Fire had burned more than 350,000 acres (141,640 hectares) about 90 miles (144 km) north of the state capital city of Sacramento as of Saturday evening, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, or Cal Fire. U.S. President Joe Biden has been briefed on the fire and has directed his team to do everything possible to support efforts to fight it, a White House official said.
Sky News
Wildfires rage across parts of US and Canada - as one town ravaged by 'wall of fire' forcing thousands to evacuate
Wildfires have spread across parts of Canada and the US, forcing thousands of people to evacuate their homes. In the Canadian Rockies town of Jasper in Alberta, officials warned of a "wall of fire" as flames reached 100m (328ft) high and spread three miles (5km) in less than 30 minutes. Meanwhile, in California, a man was arrested on suspicion of starting a wildfire near Chico after he allegedly pushed a burning car into a gully.
The State
Rare SC waterspout spins over Lake Murray. See the video
A rare South Carolina waterspout was recently seen and videoed over Lake Murray. Take a look. The National Weather Service says steer clear if you see one.
Associated Press
More than 350 structures were destroyed by Jasper wildfire in the Canadian Rockies, officials say
A wildfire in Jasper National Park in the Canadian Rockies this week destroyed more than 350 structures but all of the critical infrastructure is intact, officials said Friday. Parks Canada said out of a total of 1,113 structures within the town, 358 have been destroyed. Mayor Richard Ireland said all of the critical infrastructure has been saved.
WDSU - New Orleans
Scattered storms this weekend and a look at possible development in the tropics
Meteorologist Devon Lucie tracks the storms out responsible for flood alerts Friday Evening, then goes immediately to the tropics where there is a low chance of tropical development in the Atlantic to the North Caribbean by next week and shows who is in the area for the most concerns for keeping track of the system at this time, then times out when storms are likeliest for you this weekend and what that will mean for temperatures.
Yahoo News Canada
Canada wildfires 2024: Fire continues raging in town of Jasper, but key infrastructure OK, officials say
In an update late Thursday, Parks Canada says crews in the town of Jasper continue fighting flames that are jumping from building to building, but critical infrastructure has been protected so far.
The Canadian Press
Recent rain, cooler weather limiting spread of wildfires in Jasper National Park
EDMONTON — Cool and wet weather is making a difference in Jasper National Park.

Hurricane prediction breakdown

Probability of major hurricane landfall

Reasons for active hurricane season

Latest Stories