Kentucky vs. Tennessee predictions: The keys to a rivalry win for the Wildcats

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s game against No. 21 Tennessee might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.

Winning the ‘middle eight’

Kentucky coach Mark Stoops has never been shy about the importance of winning what he calls the “middle eight” portion of the game marking the final four minutes of the first half and first four minutes of the second half. That emphasis has not been enough for his team to avoid struggling in those situations for long stretches of his Kentucky tenure, but the issue has been particularly noticeable the last few games.

After outscoring the first three opponents 19-0 in the “middle eight,” Kentucky has been outscored 41-0 in that situation in the last four games. The execution at the end of the first half was particularly worrisome in losses to Georgia and Missouri with Kentucky unable to either run out the clock or score its own points before intermission.

“That’s something we have to look at,” Stoops said during the bye week, noting the staff had dedicated extra practice time to situational work. “... You’ve heard me talk many times. You can play 95% of a game well, but any situation can lose you a game.”

At Georgia, Kentucky received the ball down 24-7 with 5:15 left in the second quarter. Any hope of a comeback rested on the Wildcats scoring a touchdown before halftime then opening the second half, when they would start with possession, with a score.

Instead, Kentucky followed a first down with two incompletions and a sack before punting with 3:40 still on the clock. Georgia scored a touchdown with 1:01 remaining.

On UK’s next possession, a 2-yard Ray Davis run on first down was followed by back-to-back incompletions and a punt. Despite having just 23 seconds on the clock before halftime, Georgia marched down the field for a 42-yard field goal at the halftime buzzer.

A week later against Missouri, Kentucky received the ball nursing a 14-10 lead with 4:44 left in the second quarter. Back-to-back productive runs from Davis led to a first down, but a short pass to Barion Brown and a 1-yard Davis run left UK with third-and-9. Quarterback Devin Leary was sacked with 1:47 remaining, and the Tigers received good field position when Wilson Berry’s punt went just 33 yards.

Eight plays later, Missouri took the lead with an 18-yard touchdown pass with 14 seconds remaining in the half.

“You’re trying not to succumb to the half, but you’re also trying to be smart,” offensive coordinator Liam Coen said. “It is a funky kind of situation that probably doesn’t get talked about enough. You’re trying with your play calls to give the quarterback some thoughts. All right, here’s a completion, but I don’t want to be too aggressive. It’s a hard one. It is, because the quarterback can’t read your mind.

“... It just has gotten magnified with the lack of execution in that situation, and then it puts our defense in a bad spot, which is not what we’re trying to do.”

What to make of the players-only meeting

Stoops revealed during the bye week players asked to meet without coaches present, and while he was quick to caution reporters against making too much of a players-only meeting, it is clear the team’s leaders felt a reset was needed.

“We had to sit down and just really realize what we were going through,” super senior left guard and team captain Kenneth Horsey said. “It’s very easy to say we’re going to do this, this, this and this in the season. Coach says it, and you probably heard Coach say it before the season even started: There’s going to be times that we hit adversity. What are we going to do?

“My basic message when I was able to speak in the player-led meeting was I’ve been on teams to where we’ve been 10-3, I started on teams where we were 4-6 and I’ve been on teams 7-5. I think the biggest difference on those teams is our accountability. How do we respond when we get punched in the mouth? I just believe if we continue to stay focused this is still a team that can do some special things.”

Stoops said he was pleased with how players responded to back-to-back losses during the bye week, but no one around the program is pretending a players-only meeting alone will be enough to beat Tennessee.

“For us, we’re done talking,” Davis said. “We’ve got to go out there and let our actions stand. We can do all the talking in the world, but what we do in that stadium will reflect on what we’ve been saying.”

Kentucky football injury report

The bye week appears to have accomplished at least one goal with several injured Wildcats set to return to the field. Star linebacker Trevin Wallace, who missed the Missouri game, told reporters he his ready to play. Stoops expressed optimism early in the week that right guard Jager Burton would be back as well, and considering nose guard Keeshawn Silver was able to dress for the Missouri game even though he didn’t play, the week off is expected to have been enough for him to return.

The outlook is less certain for safeties Zion Childress and Jordan Lovett. Childress was not on the depth chart Monday. After he was injured at Georgia, Stoops said Childress would miss multiple weeks.

Final predictions

Tennessee 28, Kentucky 24

Despite all the focus on Tennessee’s offensive tempo, do not be surprised if this game is played in the 20s. Kentucky matches up better against the Volunteers than the last two years, but until we see the Wildcats’ offense put together a complete game I can’t pick UK to suddenly reverse course in this series.

MVP: James Pearce Jr.

Tennessee’s star pass rusher ranks second in the SEC in sacks per game. Kentucky’s offensive line should be at full strength for the first time since the season opener, but the pass protection has taken a step back in recent weeks. That could spell a big game for Pearce. “We’ve got to do a good job with protection,” Stoops said. “... We’ve got to find ways to mix it up. It’s going to be a team effort that way.”

The last word

Horsey on the Tennessee rivalry:

“A lot of these guys don’t really understand it, being around only a couple years. But I’ve been able to see, see from the fans and gain experience. I was on the last team that went out to Neyland and beat them in Tennessee, so it’s getting the guys to understand it’s not just an ordinary game. This is already an exceptional team, but now this is an exceptional team that does not like us a lot. And we’re a team that does not like Tennessee. That’s not something that’s a crazy thing to say. I feel like we understand it’s a rivalry, we respect our opponents greatly. We both want to come in there, want to go into Kroger Field and get a win. It’s just about who wants it more.”

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