In South Florida real estate, home prices reach new high despite big drop in sales

Prices for homes sold in Miami-Dade County reached a new high in June, despite a sharp drop in sales amid higher interest rates. For would-be homebuyers on the sidelines, real estate experts offered a sour forecast — prices will remain steady or increase.

Total home sales fell steeply for the first six months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022 in Miami-Dade and Broward, according to data from the Miami Association of Realtors. Miami-Dade had 12,605 closings, an approximately 33% drop from 18,925 closings in the first half of last year. Broward saw a similar trend with 15,500 transactions, down about 18% from 18,838 in 2022.

While sales fell, prices reached new peaks. As of June, Miami-Dade had a median sales price of $622,500 for single-family homes and $418,000 for condos — historic highs. That surpasses the county’s last peak of $620,000 for a single-family home in May. Prices increased from $579,000 for houses and $410,000 for condos in June 2022.

Broward also saw an uptick in home prices. It has a median sales price of $615,000 for a single-family home, up from $590,000 in June 2022, and $280,000 for condos, up from $265,000 a year ago.

Real estate experts said there are fewer buyers on the market due to higher interest rates. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.78% as of July, up from 5.54% a year ago. Those who are buying homes are willing to spend more due to the limited inventory.

“People thought this was going to be a bubble, things were going to crash. It hasn’t happened. Interest rates slowed things down for the entire country, but I feel like where we are today compared to other cities in the world is we are the place where everybody wants to be,” said Ron Shuffield, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty. “Part of the long-term success of a community is perception. The perception is Miami is the future.”

South Florida still has a shortage of inventory. A balanced market consists of six to nine months of listings. Miami-Dade has 3.3 months of houses listed for sale and five months of condos. Broward has even fewer homes on the market, with 2.7 months of single-family homes and 3.4 months of condos.

People continue to move from across the country to South Florida. Dave Silver, 31, moved to the MiMo neighborhood in May 2023 for the Miami expansion of REC Philly, an entertainment incubator he co-founded. A cyclist, Silver wanted to be within biking distance of REC Miami’s location in Little Haiti.

“I was a little intimidated going in based on how pricey everything was said to be,” he said of a two-day shopping experience in which he toured 12 different properties. “Coming from Philly and being a startup entrepreneur, I was wondering if I could afford it and be safe with the budget that I have. I was happy with what I was able to find.”

Silver pays $2,400 a month in rent for his one-bedroom condo. In Philadelphia, he shared a three-bedroom apartment with two roommates and altogether they paid the same amount in rent. He said the new amenities such as a patio and gym and close proximity to Key Biscayne make the price worth it.

South Florida started to attract waves of out-of-state remote workers, executives and corporate expansions during the pandemic due to the region’s business-friendly environment, zero state income tax and warm climate. Shuffield said his real estate agents still see prospective buyers from California, Illinois and New York. More potential buyers are now calling from Latin America, especially with the arrival of international soccer star Lionel Messi.

Out-of-state buyers often beat long-time residents and natives in the housing market with higher salaries. Many South Floridians have waited years to buy, but continue to face stiff competition and out-of-reach prices. Another challenge for many buyers? Cash remains king. In Miami-Dade, 43.5% of all deals closed in cash, nearly double the national trend of 26%. Broward has 40.9% of its deals close in cash.

Real estate experts predict demand will remain high for South Florida homes. Miami Association of Realtors members reported 233,675 requests for showings in June across South Florida, up 7% from 218,973 showings last year.

Those thinking about buying might want to do so sooner rather than later, said Mariya Letdin, a business professor at Florida State University. Home prices are expected to remain high, given South Florida’s local job market.

Based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach metro areas have 2.89 million people employed and a 2% low unemployment rate, conditions South Florida hasn’t seen in nearly 20 years. Given the strong employment market, buyers are expected to have the stable job conditions to support a mortgage.

Shuffield said home prices in the region won’t go down to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, if ever. “I feel like with the demand that we have right now and the quality of what we’re seeing, many neighborhoods are being improved with remodeling. Those are all pluses for people who want to come here,” Shuffield said, “You just need to get in the game.”