Three bold predictions & five must-see games for Kansas Jayhawks basketball this season

After a disappointing early exit in last season’s NCAA Tournament, the Kansas men’s basketball team “reloaded the wagons” this offseason.

KU has only four returnees from last season (KJ Adams, Dajuan Harris, Kevin McCullar and Zach Clemence). The first three will start, while Clemence will redshirt.

Kansas added three players from the transfer portal, including No. 1-ranked transfer Hunter Dickinson from Michigan.

The Jayhawks added two other transfers — sixth-year sharpshooter Nick Timberlake from Towson and Missouri center Paker Braun, the younger brother of Christian Braun.

Three freshmen (Elmarko Jackson, Jamari McDowell, Johnny Furphy) round out KU’s 10 scholarship players.

Expectations around the new-look Jayhawks are sky-high; KU’s ranked No. 1 in the season’s first Associated Press Top 25 poll.

Dickinson, who’s never afraid to speak his mind, has embraced the expectations.

“I like people knowing (the ranking) because I want them to know we’re better than them,” Dickinson told ESPN.

KU guard Harris shared a similar sentiment — even boasting about himself a bit.

“Really, they (freshmen) are just trying to learn from the best,” he said. “We’ve got the best big, the best point guard and then we’ve got one of the best all-around players.”

The Jayhawks will see if their play matches their words in the 2023-24 season opener against North Carolina Central on Monday at Allen Fieldhouse.

Here are three bold predictions for the season and a look at five Jayhawks games you won’t want to miss.

Kevin McCullar is KU’s best player

The offense may run through Dickinson, but this is McCullar’s team.

McCullar’s looked like the best player on the floor in both of KU’s two exhibition games. He scored 25 points against No. 25 Illinois on Sunday and then had 21 against Fort Hays State.

He scored from all over the floor in that game, but his perimeter shooting has been most impressive.

McCullar, a 29.8% 3-point shooter in his college career, shot 4-for-8 from deep against Fort Hays State. He was the only Jayhawk to make multiple 3s against Illinois (2-for-5).

Expect him to shoot a career-high in attempts for a team that desperately needs it.

“Of course, in the NBA you want to shoot 40%,” McCullar told The Star. “But anything 37% and up, I’ll take that. I feel like that’s going to put us in the best position to win ballgames if I am shooting at that high level.”

McCullar looks as comfortable as he’s ever been in a Jayhawks uniform. He’s a prime candidate to take up where forward Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick left off (both are now in the NBA).

Dickinson might average 18 and 8, but McCullar is a more well-rounded overall player.

KU’s perimeter shooting will be an issue all season

Through KU’s five exhibitions (including the Puerto Rico games), this team is shooting 29% from beyond the arc.

Kansas coach Bill Self expressed frustration with KU’s shooting after their final preseason contest against Fort Hays State.

“We ran a play for Nick (Timberlake, 1-of-5 from 3 for three points) with two minutes left to shoot a 3. (He made it) so that knocks it down to five (3s in the flow of the game),” Self said. “Parker (Braun, 1-2 from 3 for five points) banked one in, that knocks it down to four. Kevin (McCullar, still slowed by whiplash suffered in Sunday’s Illinois game) almost didn’t play and he makes four. That’s 0-for-18 for everybody else.”

There isn’t a player among KU’s four set starters (Adams, Dickinson, Harris and McCullar) who shoots 3-pointers at a high volume and good percentage.

Sharpshooter Timberlake, a career 37.9% shooter from deep, could help alleviate that issue if he’s named KU’s fifth starter. Last season, he shot 41.6% on 6.7 three-point attempts per game. But even he isn’t infallible, shooting a combined 1-for-6 (16.7%) in KU’s final two exhibition games.

KU relies on one elite shooter and other players (Harris and Dickinson) who don’t shoot a high volume of 3s to make 3-pointers.

Last season, the Jayhawks shot 34.7% from long range on 20.1 attempts per game. If Kansas wants to shoot anywhere near as well as either of those numbers would seem to suggest, Self needs McCullar to improve his percentage and Dickinson and Harris to simply take more shots.

That might be a lot to ask.

Clemence will burn his redshirt

Currently, KU’s roster stands at nine (playable) scholarship players, with Clemence redshirting.

After nearly leaving KU for Santa Barbara this offseason, Clemence has impressed Self in practice.

“Zach’s been fantastic,” Self said recently. “I’d say … he’s one of the guys that’s been most improved. Once we started practicing, I think Zach has been probably as good as anybody.”

Right now, KU has a three-person big-man rotation: Adams, Dickinson and Braun (Dickinson’s backup).

Clemence told The Star he’s focused on becoming a mobile wing instead of a center. But he can help KU in multiple ways.

First, he can play big-man minutes if needed and wing minutes in other lineup configurations. A stretch big man, could help alleviate some of KU’s perimeter-shooting concerns.

Whether Clemence burns his redshirt or not might come down to whether KU decides to add another player to the roster.

Five games to watch this season

1. Kansas vs. UConn (Dec.1): This battle featuring the last two national champions should be a fun one. Can Dan Hurley and his young UConn squad beat an experienced KU team at Allen Fieldhouse? Both teams have very passionate and active fanbases on social media, and KU freshman guard Jackson is good friends with Husky freshman guard Stephon Castle. Jackson told the Star that the trash-talk has already begun.

2. Kansas vs. Kentucky (Nov. 14): After the IARP ruling, KU finds itself seven wins behind the Wildcats. But the Jayhawks can make up some ground in this game at Chicago. It’s a big early-season test for both squads. Hopefully Kentucky’s learned to play zone by then.

3. Kansas vs. K-State (Feb. 5): Last season, the Wildcats defeated KU in a thrilling overtime win. Then KU got revenge at home, but K-State advanced further in the NCAA Tournament. Any time these two meet, the crowds are crazy — Bramlage Coliseum last season is a good example. Let’s see if KU can get a revenge win over the Wildcats on the road.

4. KU vs. Texas (Feb.24): With The Longhorns leaving the conference for the SEC next season, this could be the final KU-UT showdown at Allen Fieldhouse for some time to come. Texas had KU’s number last season, winning two out of three, including the Big 12 Tournament championship game. Making things even more fun, there’s no love lost for the Longhorns among the Jayhawks faithful.

5. Kansas vs. Missouri (Dec. 9): The Border War is back at Allen Fieldhouse after a meeting in Columbia last season. KU throttled the Tigers on the road in that one, but the MU student section heckled the Jayhawks for most of the game. Expect something similar from the blue-clad crowd at Allen Fieldhouse, as this is a game neither side wants to lose.