3 electoral maps that show how disastrous the election could be for the Tories

With new modelling predicting a Labour victory even bigger than Tony Blair's 1997 landslide, the outlook for Rishi Sunak is not looking good.

Britain's Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak gestures on a visit to Leander Rowing Club, in Henley-on-Thames, England, on June 3, 2024 during a campaign event in the build-up to the UK general election on July 4.  (Photo by Carl Court / POOL / AFP) (Photo by CARL COURT/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Rishi Sunak on a visit on Monday to Leander Rowing Club, Henley-on-Thames, during the Tories' campaign trail. (Getty Images)

The outlook was already looking bleak for the Conservative Party when Rishi Sunak called the general election following months of dismal approval ratings that showed little sign of improving.

At a campaign event last week, Sunak said he didn't think defeat to Labour was a "foregone conclusion", suggesting his main election rival Sir Keir Starmer was taking the British electorate "for granted".

However, a general election projection released on Monday will have added to the Tories' woes – predicting the biggest win for Labour in the party's history, surpassing even that of Tony Blair's 1997 landslide.

The analysis, carried out by YouGov for Sky News, used a relatively new polling technique called Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP), which is regarded to have had a good track record and can provide detailed predictions at a constituency level basis.

The scale of Sunak's problems is demonstrated by the interactive maps below, showing just how much ground the Tories are expected to lose compared to their 2019 victory.

Click on the arrows in the top left to switch between the two maps. Check your own constituency to see if it is projected to change hands

The first map above shows the seats won in the 2019 general election, when Boris Johnson led the party to a stunning majority.

The wall of Tory blue on the map, compared to the spots of Labour red, is a demonstration of just how far Labour, then led by Jeremy Corbyn, had fallen in public standing. The result was Labour's worst electoral performance since 1935.

If you toggle to the second map, the projection by YouGov (which was based on polling carried out between 24 May - 1 June) suggests that Starmer's party is on track to win 422 seats, with the Tories down to just 140.

Such a result would be the Conservative Party's worst performance at a general election since 1906. If YouGov's predictions are accurate, Labour winning a 194-seat majority would be the highest number since Conservative Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

The model suggests the Conservatives could be set for near wipeout across many areas of the country, including London, the North East, the North West, and Wales.

It also projects that the Scottish National Party would lose more than half their seats, with Labour returning as the largest party north of the border, and the Liberal Democrats reclaiming its place as the third party of British politics – winning 48 seats.

The new figures, released yesterday, came as Reform UK co-founder Nigel Farage announced that he would be returning as the populist party's leader and would stand for election in Clacton-on-Sea, Essex. Even before Farage's latest bid, pollsters told Yahoo News that Reform UK could pose a serious threat to the Tories by splitting the vote and potentially handing even more seats to Labour.

The YouGov projection follows a similar poll by modelling site Electoral Calculus, which came out on 31 May. The polling also compares the 2019 result with Electoral Calculus' projection.

It predicts that Labour is on course to win an even bigger majority of 319 seats - with Starmer's party picking up 485 MPs and the Tories way behind with 66. The modelling shows the Lib Dems getting very close to the Conservative Party, with 59 seats.

While Electoral Calculus' polling, based on opinion polls from 8 May to 20 May, returns a different set of projections to YouGov's, both clearly indicate the scale of the problem facing Sunak.

WORCESTER, UNITED KINGDOM - MAY 29: Labour leader Keir Starmer attends a campaign event with Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting (not pictured) at Three Counties Medical School on May 29, 2024 in Worcester, United Kingdom. The Labour leader and Shadow Health Secretary met with patients who are stuck on waiting lists for treatments, and unveiled Labour vision to reduce NHS backlogs by performing two million extra operations, scans, and appointments in the first year.  (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
The Electoral Calculus model has predicted Sir Keir Starmer's Labour will win a massive majority. (Getty Images)

According to YouGov's polls this week, 12 out of 26 cabinet members running for re-election could lose their seats on 4 July.

"These are some of the biggest names in our politics," deputy political editor Sam Coates said as he presented the findings on Sky News. "Every single one of these, right now, is projected on course to lose at the general election."

Those ministers are:

  • Jeremy Hunt, chancellor: Predicted to lose Godalming and Ash seat to the Liberal Democrats by 15 points

  • Grant Shapps, defence secretary: Predicted to lose Welwyn Hatfield to Labour by 18 points

  • Penny Mordaunt, Commons leader: Predicted to lose Portsmouth North to Labour by five points

  • Mark Harper, transport secretary: Predicted to lose Forest of Dean to Labour by four points

  • Alex Chalk, justice secretary: Predicted to lose Cheltenham by 31 points to the Liberal Democrats by 31 points

  • Mel Stride, work and pensions secretary: Predicted to lose Central Devon to Labour by one point

  • Jonny Mercer, defence minister: Predicted to lose Plymouth Moor View to Labour by 11 points

  • Esther McVey, minister without portfolio: Predicted to lose Tatton to Labour by one point

  • Gillian Keegan, education secretary: Predicted to lose Chichester to the Lib Dems by five points

  • Simon Hart, chief whip: Predicted to lose Caerfyrddin to Labour by nine points

  • David T C Davies, Welsh secretary: Predicted to lose Monmouthshire to Labour by 11 points

  • Victoria Prentis, attorney general: Predicted to lose Banbury to Labour by six points