Will we see an early spring in Kentucky this year? A strong El Niño may hold the key
The nation’s Climate Prediction Center projects there’s a good chance of a “historically strong” El Niño early this winter.
Scientists understand the weather phenomenon as a warming of the surface waters in the Pacific Ocean. That warming weakens the wind currents that normally blow east to west along the equator, sometimes even reversing them. The result is a shift in normal weather patterns across the U.S. and worldwide. In the winter, El Niño generally brings flooding to the southern U.S. and warmer, drier conditions over the Pacific Northwest, northern U.S. and Canada.
But what effect would a strong El Niño have on winter weather in Kentucky? The state sits roughly between the warmer, drier North and the cooler, wetter South, so the answer isn’t obvious. While federal forecasters expect a strong El Niño this winter, it could give way to more normal conditions by April. So is Kentucky likely to see a short, mild winter and early spring as a result?
Here’s what to know about what a strong El Niño could mean for the rest of winter in Kentucky this year.
What should we expect from a strong El Niño in KY this winter?
As explained by National Weather Service forecaster Tom Reaugh, in Louisville, “El Niño increases the chances of having a winter that is drier than normal as a whole, and possibly warmer though the precipitation signal is stronger than the temperature signal.”
Still, it’s worth remembering weather is complicated, and El Niño isn’t the only factor to consider.
“There are many other atmospheric phenomena that affect our weather,” Reaugh said. “We will still have occasional cold outbreaks and wet systems passing through.”
The latest Lexington forecast has a wind advisory in place from Monday night to Wednesday. Looking ahead, freezing temperatures are expected to arrive Saturday and linger. There’s also a good chance of snow early next week.
Reaugh noted El Niño winters tend to start out mild and then turn colder later in the winter season, which runs December through March 19, when spring begins.
When will Central Kentucky see its first snow of the season? Past years offer a clue
Additionally, the influence of a strong El Niño doesn’t necessarily equate to more extreme weather. It does however increase the odds of seeing typical El Niño outcomes for our weather, Reaugh said.
Can we expect an early spring in KY given El Niño?
It’s difficult to say with certainty when it will begin to feel like spring in Kentucky.
“The (Climate Prediction Center) outlook for April-June is calling for slightly increased chances of warmer than normal temperatures in Kentucky, and slightly increased chances of wetter than normal precipitation over the southeast U.S. from Mississippi to Virginia, grazing southeast Kentucky,” Reaugh said.
That said, an outlook is not a forecast.
As a wintertime phenomenon, El Niño’s influence does tend to wane in the spring, NWS forecaster Adrian Lopez Lago noted.
Back in the fall, when NWS forecasters were looking ahead to winter, Reaugh said it appeared to them the season would start off mild, then turn colder and possibly snowier by mid-January to February.
“The latest indications continue to suggest a colder and more active (more frequent storm systems) pattern setting up sometime over the next couple of weeks and continuing into at least mid-February,” Reaugh told the Herald-Leader Friday.
According to Lago, it’s also possible a spate of snowy and cold weather in the next few weeks could create a feedback loop that works against the chance of a quick warm up to spring. Cold temperatures encourage the snow on the ground to remain, and the snow on the ground encourages cold temperatures.
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