Game prediction for KU basketball vs. UCF, plus betting odds for Big 12 matchup

The No. 3-ranked University of Kansas men’s basketball team will travel to Orlando to face Big 12 foe UCF on Wednesday.

The Jayhawks (13-1, 1-0 Big 12) defeated TCU on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Knights lost badly to K-State.

It’s the first meeting between the two sides.

Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.

No. 3 Kansas vs. UCF

When/where: 6 p.m. Central, Addition Financial Arena (Orlando)

TV/Streaming: ESPN+

Opponent’s record: 9-4

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 87

Betting line: Kansas is a 6.5-point favorite

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

UCF Team Strengths

• Elite defense: UCF ranks No. 26 (95.6) in adjusted defensive efficiency, the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. By comparison, Kansas ranks No. 7 in the same category.

• They turn you over: The Knights do an excellent job of forcing turnovers, ranking No. 10 in opponent turnover percentage (23).

• Cleaning the glass: UCF ranks No. 34 in offensive rebounding percentage (35.6).

UCF Team Weaknesses

• Lack of 3-point shooting: Like Kansas, the Knights don’t attempt a lot of 3-pointers. UCF ranks No. 196 in 3-point rate (attempting 36.6% of its shots from 3). Meanwhile, KU ranks No. 318 in the same category (30.7%). UCF also shoots 32.3% from deep, ranking No. 222.

• Weak schedule: The Knights haven’t played too many tough opponents, with a strength of schedule that ranks No. 311.

• Turnover issues: UCF struggles to take care of the ball, ranking No. 200 in turnover percentage (17.9).

UCF Name to Know

6–foot-4 junior guard Jaylin Sellers (No. 24)

+ Leading scorer (17.8 ppg)

+ Quality rebounder for a guard (4.5 rebounds per game)

+ Steals savant (1.6 steals per game)

+ Makes foul shots (shooting 82.5% at the line)

- Struggles from deep (25.7% )

- Not much of a passer (1.1 APG)

Tale of the Tape

Getting easy points is pivotal for a team that struggles on offense as much as UCF does. The Knights do it by turning defense into offense. Here, they force a turnover and quickly strike.

Omar Payne converted the fast-break alley-oop. Payne is a high-flyer, shooting 76.9% at the rim, so the Jayhawks must track him on fast breaks to ensure he doesn’t get loose.

UCF doesn’t have many great 3-point shooters, but one of their best is Antwann Jones. He’s currently shooting 40% from deep. Here, Jones received a pass swung his way and quickly canned the 3-point shot before the Bethune defender recovered in time.

For the Jayhawks, it might be fruitful to face-guard Jones and run him off the 3-point line whenever possible. Getting the ball away from him will turn a bad UCF offense into an even worse one.

Game prediction

This game should be a fun one.

The Jayhawks’ defense has been elite this season, and I expect that to continue against a UCF offense that struggles to score the ball.

The key for KU will be to limit turnovers, because transition scoring opportunities will give the Knights a chance to get going offensively.

On the offensive end, KU needs to hit some 3-pointers. The Knights are elite at defending inside the arc, so a couple of 3-pointers will open the floor for Kansas.

I think KU pulls out this one.

Kansas 78, UCF 68

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-6.5)

Shreyas’ season record: 10-2

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 8-4

KU player to watch: Johnny Furphy

KU freshman Johnny Furphy is starting to look more and more comfortable each week. His defense has improved, and he’s doing the little things well in the minutes he plays.

Against TCU, he had four points, three rebounds and one block in 10 minutes of game time. He should see an extended run in this game if he can limit his fouls.

Let’s see if he can keep building off his last few performances.